Timberwolves playoff seeding scenarios heading into season's final day

All the Minnesota Timberwolves have to do to secure their spot in the postseason is handle business against one of the worst teams in the NBA on the final day of the regular season.

If the Wolves (48-33) beat the Jazz (17-64) at Target Center on Sunday afternoon, they'll be guaranteed a top-six seed in the Western Conference playoffs. Assuming they're able to do that, the seeding scenarios are fairly simple, although there are still three possible first-round opponents for Minnesota depending on the results of Sunday's other West games (all of which will happen simultaneously). There's even one pathway to the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the opening round.

The two other games that matter are the Nuggets facing the Rockets and the massive showdown between the Clippers and Warriors. (The Grizzlies are locked into a spot in the play-in tournament, while the Lakers have clinched the No. 3 seed in the conference).

Scenario 1

If Denver wins in Houston — against a Rockets team that has been resting its starters — and the Warriors win as 4.5-point home favorites over the Clippers, the Wolves would be the No. 5 seed and face the Nuggets for the third consecutive postseason. This is the most likely outcome on paper, though not by a wide margin.

4. DEN (50-32)
5. MIN (49-33)
6. GSW (49-33)
7. LAC (49-33)

The Wolves win that three-team tiebreaker because they went 4-3 against the Clippers and Warriors this year (3-0 against LAC, 1-3 against GSW). The Clips went 3-3 (0-3 vs. MIN, 3-0 vs. GSW), while the Warriors were 3-4 against the other two.

Scenario 2

If the Nuggets win against Houston's B team (assuming that's who the Rockets continue to roll with) and the Clippers beat the Warriors, here's what it would look like:

4. DEN (50-32)
5. LAC (50-32)
6. MIN (49-33)
7. GSW (48-34)

That would set the Wolves up for a pretty scary first-round playoff matchup against LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and the Lakers. At the start of this week, I ranked that as the second-worst potential playoff opponent for Minnesota, behind only the Thunder. Wolves fans will be rooting for the Warriors on Sunday to avoid this specific outcome.

Scenario 3

Now let's look at the two scenarios where the Rockets beat the Nuggets in Houston. Maybe they decide to play their guys to avoid rust when the postseason begins, or maybe Cam Whitmore and Reed Sheppard go nuclear against Denver. Here's what it looks like if Houston and the Warriors win:

4. MIN (49-33)
5. LAC (49-33)
6. GSW (49-33)
7. DEN (49-33)

Yep, that's a four-team tie where one team will host a playoff series and the other will host a play-in game. Crazy. The Wolves win it thanks to their dominance against the Nuggets and Clippers this season (8-3 combined record against those three teams, with all of the losses against the Warriors). The Clippers and Warriors would be tied with 5-6 records against the other three, with the Clippers winning due to a better division record.

That's the one scenario where the Wolves end up hosting a first-round series. The Clippers are probably a tougher matchup than the Nuggets, though.

Scenario 4

And here's what it looks like if the Rockets and Clippers win:

4. LAC (50-32)
5. MIN (49-33)
6. DEN (49-33)
7. GSW (48-34)

So if the Rockets win on Sunday, the Wolves play the Clippers in the 4-5 matchup either way, it's just a question of which team gets home-court advantage. If the Nuggets win (which seems far more likely), the Wolves will face either the Nuggets or Lakers.

The only silver lining of a possible 3-6 matchup against the Lakers is that if the Wolves win, they wouldn't have to face the Thunder in the second round. The other three scenarios have them in the 4- series, which means facing Oklahoma City in the next round if they advance.

All of these scenarios hinge on the Wolves beating the Jazz. They might not have Anthony Edwards for that game after he picked up his 18th technical foul of the season on Friday (which he hopes the league reviews and rescinds). However, they will have Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle, who were also out the last time the Wolves played the Jazz without a suspended Edwards (and lost by a point). That should be enough, one would think.

If the Wolves lose to the Jazz, they'll be the No. 8 seed if the Grizzlies beat the Mavericks on Sunday in Memphis and the No. 7 seed if the Grizzlies lose. Either way would mean a play-in game against Memphis.

It all comes down to Sunday afternoon at 2:30 p.m. central time.

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