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Tom Thibodeau in danger if playoffs are a disaster
Image credit: ClutchPoints

If recent NBA history has shown us anything, it’s that job security for head coaches is fleeting. Michael Malone, who guided the Denver Nuggets to the 2023 championship, was dismissed with just three games remaining in the regular season. Weeks before, the Memphis Grizzlies parted ways with Taylor Jenkins while still in the thick of a playoff race. The New York Knicks could be next. If they fall short in the playoffs for a third straight year, Tom Thibodeau’s future might be the change they decide to make.

Thibodeau owns a .579 winning percentage over 13 seasons as an NBA head coach, tying him for 31st all-time with Erik Spoelstra among coaches who’ve led at least 100 games since 1946.

Erik Spoelstra’s Heat have gone 83-81 over the past two seasons. Tom Thibodeau’s Knicks, by comparison, are 101-64 in that span. Still, some analysts and fans treat Spoelstra like he he’s the better coach, while acting as if Thibodeau stumbled into 578 of his 998 career wins and earned every one of his 420 losses.

After replacing Julius Randle with Karl-Anthony Towns and bringing in Mikal Bridges last offseason, the Knicks are unlikely to make major roster changes. Instead, questions around Tom Thibodeau’s long-term fit as head coach have grown louder. His offense has lacked variety, and even the defense — once a trademark — has wavered. As a result, the Knicks fell short of expectations, especially against top-tier competition, going 0-7 combined against the Cavaliers and Celtics.

Criticism surrounding Tom Thibodeau’s coaching style

New York Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau during a timeout in the second half against the Philadelphia 76ers at Madison Square Garden. John Jones-Imagn Images

Thibodeau has long faced criticism for overworking his starters, a reputation shaped by his heavy dependence on his top unit and limited bench use. This season, Knicks starters have logged over 500 more minutes than any other team’s starting five. That concern isn’t new — last year, as New York’s strongest Finals push in decades fell apart under a wave of injuries, his substitution habits came under fire once again.

The conversation resurfaced recently when Knicks guard Mikal Bridges — one of the NBA’s most durable players — spoke unusually openly about the issue in an interview, shedding light on Thibodeau’s heavy-minute approach.

“Sometimes it’s not fun on the body,” said the Knicks wing. “You’ll want that as a coach but also talked to him a little bit knowing that we’ve got a good enough team where our bench guys can come in and we don’t need to play 48 (minutes), 47.”

Thibodeau has consistently brushed off the criticism. Still, his reputation as a coach who shortens careers has stuck—largely fueled by Derrick Rose’s major knee injury during Thibodeau’s tenure in Chicago.

The Knicks have gone all-in, leaving little room for ambiguity about expectations. A first-round exit would clearly mark a failure. Falling to Boston in the second round is tougher to judge. If the Celtics dominate, it could signal the Knicks aren’t true contenders. But if New York pushes Boston and the Celtics repeat as champions, the outcome becomes much harder to interpret.

Thibodeau’s offense faced criticism for its lack of creativity, yet the Knicks ranked fifth in offensive efficiency. Despite Karl-Anthony Towns’ defensive struggles, the team finished 13th defensively. In short, no single reason justifies firing Thibodeau. If the Knicks part ways with him, it will stem from a combination of factors—some within his control, others not.

This article first appeared on NBA on ClutchPoints and was syndicated with permission.

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