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May 31, 2023: These overs are tasty, any way you slice them

We'll touch on the NBA Finals more in tomorrow's issue, but we'll pass the time with a bit more MLB. Before we know it, baseball will be running the show around here, so we may as well continue looking into a few angles.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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These overs are tasty, any way you slice them

Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

We'll touch on the NBA Finals more in tomorrow's issue, but we'll pass the time with a bit more MLB. Before we know it, baseball will be running the show around here, so we may as well continue looking into a few angles.

Two games seem to check a few important boxes

Let's chat about the process a bit this afternoon. As with any sport and bet, there are multiple factors and variables to examine and consider before something becomes a bet worth making.

If we want to say, bet on the over in an MLB game, we're looking at a combination of the following:

  • Over/under trends for the teams
  • The quality of the day's starters
  • Offensive ranks for each team
  • How well they hit RHP/LHP
  • Weather forecast
  • Past history vs. each other

There are surely some other things to consider, but at its core, we tend to start here. With that established, there are two games that caught our eye today.

The first is in Oakland between the Braves and Athletics. Atlanta owns the third-best over record in the MLB, thanks in no small part to their offense, which ranks fifth in baseball for runs scored. On the other end is Oakland, who has been the eighth-most profitable team towards the over, though in this case, that's far more because of their struggling pitching.

We have a pair of pitchers that suggest to us runs are coming. Jared Shuster of Atlanta has a 5.33 ERA in 25.1 innings pitched, and the Athetics' James Kaprielian owns a rough 8.46 ERA in 33 IP. 

For good measure, four of the last five meetings between these clubs have hit today's over/under, so we're jumping in.

Betting: ATL-OAK over 9 runs (-125 DK)

The second game on our radar is the Red Sox and Reds, squaring off later tonight in Boston. The Red Sox are the second-most profitable team toward their overs this season, and Cincinnati isn't far behind at sixth. Both offenses find themselves ranked inside the top-12 of runs scored, which certainly helps explain the betting trends for both sides.

Today's starters are Luke Weaver (5.45 ERA) and James Paxton (5.14 ERA), neither of whom scare us too much.

These two played last night and combined for 17 runs. Here's hoping for an encore.

Betting: CIN-BOS over 10.5 runs (-105 DK)


In the news ...

Warriors GM Bob Myers stepping down — Two-time executive of the year Bob Myers, who oversaw four Golden State Warriors championships, has announced he is stepping down as GM and president. Golden State is expected to promote from within to replace Myers, who has been at the helm since 2015. Vice president of basketball operations Mike Dunleavy Jr. is Myers' most likely successor, while the owner's son, Kirk Lacob, could also see increased responsibilities.

Deion Sanders and Colorado getting recruited to join Big 12 — There's quite a bit of hype surrounding the Colorado football team with Deion Sanders as the new head coach, and that hype has extended beyond the field. It's reported that the Big 12 and Colorado have had substantive talks about the Buffaloes leaving the Pac-12 to join the Big 12. Both conferences are losing powers. Texas and Oklahoma are leaving the Big 12 to join the SEC, and USC and UCLA are leaving the Pac-12 to join the Big Ten. It appears the Big 12 is the conference accepting this new world, as they have added multiple schools to their conference while the Pac-12 only shrinks.

Nashville Predators fire head coach John Hynes, hire Andrew Brunette — After missing out on the playoffs, Nashville GM Barry Trotz has made the decision to fire the Predators head coach John Hynes, immediately replacing him with Andrew Brunette. Brunette is best known for taking over for Florida last year early in the season, leading them to the Presidents' Trophy win and a second-round exit. He was not retained and now will take over what remains a promising Predators group. Nashville is +7500 to win next year's Stanley Cup.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll

Quick Picks

1 Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Patrick Corbin and Noah Syndergaard have both mightily struggled this year, so give us runs scored today in Los Angeles. The Dodgers rank third in runs scored this year and own the fifth-best record to the over. They should lead the way here. Grab over 9.5 runs.
Wednesday, 4:10 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Nationals
+1.5 (+105) +210 > 9.5 (-105)
Dodgers
-1.5 (-118) -230 < 9.5 (-110)
2 Milwaukee Brewers @ Toronto Blue Jays

Alek Manoah has had a rough go of it to begin this season, going just 1-5 thus far with a 5.53 ERA and 1.79 WHIP to boot. The Brewers are solid against righties and should be able to get something going here on the road. We're taking Milwaukee +1.5 at -120.
Wednesday, 7:07 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Brewers
+1.5 (-130) +150 > 9.5 (-115)
Blue Jays
-1 (-129) -155 < 9.5 (-115)
3 New York Yankees @ Seattle Mariners

The Yankees haven't been as successful getting on base against right-handed pitching this season, ranking just 24th in OBP vs. RHP up to this point. George Kirby is coming off a rough start for the Mariners, but besides that has been solid on the rubber. We'll roll with a bounce-back effort from Kirby and load up the Seattle moneyline at -135.
Wednesday, 9:40 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Yankees
+1.5 (-169) +125 > 7.5 (-110)
Mariners
-1 (+107) -135 < 7.5 (-105)
4 Hunter Brown over 7.5 Ks

Over his past three starts, Houston's Hunter Brown has compiled strikeout totals of eight, nine and 10. He'll face off today against a Minnesota team fanning at the second-highest rate against RHP, so we like his chances of keeping up this pace. Load up Brown tonight.

Latest Odds:  +115
5 FC Cincinnati @ New York City FC

Cincinnati has been the MLS' best up to this point, sporting 10 wins, one loss, and three draws. Tonight, they'll be taking on New York, which is just 4-4-6. FC Cincinnati took down NYCFC 1-0 earlier this month, and at their price today we'll gladly hop in the ring with them here. FC Cincinnati to win in regular time is +230; count us in.
Wednesday, 7:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
FC Cincinnati
+0.5 (-141) +240 > 2.5 (+100)
New York City FC
-0.5 (-120) +127 < 2.5 (-118)

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