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September 27, 2024: Picking Pickens to headline our favorite player props this weekend

We're now three weeks through the 2024-25 NFL season, and although oddsmakers have more data to pull from to craft their player props, there's still value

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Picking Pickens to headline our favorite NFL player props this weekend

Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

We're now three weeks through the 2024-25 NFL season, and although oddsmakers have more data to pull from to craft their player props, there's still value to be found in alternate lines based on how the first three games of the season have played out. 

Let's head to the garage and dust off the ladder for a pair of player props we're looking to target with alternate lines for NFL Week 4. 

Climbing the ladder in NFL Week 4

George Pickens over 52.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel)

Ladder:
70+ receiving yards (+200 DK)
90+ receiving yards (+400 DK)
125+ receiving yards (+980 FD)

Pickens isn't lighting up the stat sheet early in the season, but he's been creating separation and getting open at an impressive clip. The Pittsburgh Steelers wideout ranks fifth in the NFL in separation win rate through three games, so he's primed for a monster game soon if Justin Fields can find him down the field. And by soon, we mean this week.

The Indianapolis Colts sneakily have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They let Malik Willis go 12-14 for 122 yards with just one week of practice to prepare for his first start of the year, and Caleb Williams threw all over them for 363 yards and two touchdowns last week. Yes, the same Caleb Williams who managed just 267 passing yards over his first two starts. The Colts don't have anyone in the secondary who can hang with Pickens. As Fields' best deep threat, Pickens could put up a big number against this defense. 

Mark Andrews over 27.5 receiving yards (-114 FD)

Ladder:
40+ receiving yards (+195 FD)
60+ receiving yards (+560 FD)
80+ receiving yards (+1300 FD)

If you drafted Andrews in fantasy football, you know how disappointing he's been this season. The veteran tight end has recorded only six catches for 65 yards through three games, and he didn't catch a single pass last week for the first time since the 2022-23 season. After Andrews' slow start, now is the perfect time to buy the dip.

Andrews had a quiet Week 3 because the Baltimore Ravens jumped all over the Dallas Cowboys early and needed to throw only 15 passes to cruise to a win. Lamar Jackson will have to air it out more this week with Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills on the other sideline. The Bills have been great against the run so far, but their weakness on defense is in the middle of the field with their linebackers and safeties. The way to attack this defense is down the seam, and that's where Andrews excels. 

In Andrews' 10 regular-season games last season, he recorded 40-plus yards eight times, 60-plus yards five times and 80-plus yards twice. This is the game he gets back on track. 

In the news ...

Cowboys knock off Giants behind CeeDee Lamb's big night — It's been a somewhat quiet start to the season for Lamb after signing his huge contract extension, but he balled out on Thursday Night Football with seven catches for 98 yards and a touchdown to help lead the Dallas Cowboys to a 20-15 win against the New York Giants. Malik Nabers continued to impress with 12 catches for 115 yards in the game, but New York fell to 1-3 and last place in the NFC East. The Cowboys are +240 to win the division. 

Team USA sweeps four-ball session to take 5-0 lead at Presidents Cup — What a start for the Americans up north. Team USA went 5-0 in Thursday's four-ball session to take a commanding lead against Team International at the 2024 Presidents Cup. The Americans will look to keep the momentum rolling in Friday's foursomes session, where the premier matchup will pit Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay against Hideki Matsuyama and Sungjae Im. Team USA is now a massive -1250 favorite to win the cup. 

Dodgers, Yankees clinch divisions as MLB playoff picture becomes clearer — With only a few days left in the MLB regular season, all six divisions have been settled. The Los Angeles Dodgers clinched the NL West with a win against the San Diego Padres, while the New York Yankees locked up the AL East with a victory against the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles and Padres already clinched wild-card spots in their respective leagues, but there are still six WC spots up for grabs this weekend. The Dodgers are +300 favorites to win the World Series.

Quick Picks

1 Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals under 4.5 first 5 innings

Trevor Williams was one of the hottest starting pitchers in MLB before landing on the injured list in June, and he picked up right where he left off with only one earned run against the Chicago Cubs last week. On the other side, Ranger Suarez has surrendered two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts against the Nats.

Latest Odds:  -120 DK
2 Houston Astros @ Cleveland Guardians under 4.5 first 5 innings

Sticking with the same theme here, we're backing both starting pitchers in this matchup. Ronel Blanco has given up only two earned runs in his last 19.0 innings of work, while Joey Cantillo is also on fire with only eight hits allowed and two earned runs in his last four starts.

Latest Odds:  -120 FD
3 Fernando Tatis over 1.5 total bases

Tatis is batting .333 and slugging .750 over the last 15 days, and 10 of his 16 hits in that span have been extra-base hits. The San Diego Padres slugger is also batting .364 with four home runs and a double in his career against Merrill Kelly.

Latest Odds:  -110 DK
4 Georgia Bulldogs @ Alabama Crimson Tide

We can't leave you for the weekend without hitting the biggest game of the young college football season. This line has shrunk because Georgia is down a few starters, but we know Kirby Smart's squad is deep enough to overcome those absences. The Bulldogs should be able to attack the Crimson Tide down the field, and we don't trust Jalen Milroe's arm to keep up. Give us Georgia on the money line.
Saturday, 7:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Georgia
+1 (-115) -110 > 49.5 (-108)
Alabama
+3.5 (-114) +150 < 49.5 (-109)
5 Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers

The Bengals should be a profitable over team all season. Joe Burrow is heating up with Tee Higgins now back in the lineup, while the defense is struggling to stop the run and get opposing teams off the field on third down. The Panthers are a completely different offense with Andy Dalton running the show, so this could turn into a shootout. We'll take the over 47.
Sunday, 1:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Bengals
-4.5 (-110) -205 > 47 (-110)
Panthers
+4.5 (-108) +185 < 47 (-110)

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