A pessimist’s guide to the 2024 Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars appeared to be on cruise control to a playoff spot after an 8-3 start last year, but a late-season meltdown kept them out of the postseason.

Here’s why the Jaguars should be worried about 2024.

Defense still needs work

Keeping edge-rusher Josh Allen was a huge coup for Jacksonville, but outside of signing defensive end Arik Armstead, cornerback Ronald Darby and safety Darnell Savage, the team didn’t do a great job of filling all of its holes on the defense. The Jaguars lost safety Rayshawn Jenkins, defensive ends Foley Fatukasi, Dawuane Smoot and Angelo Blackson, cornerback Darious Williams and linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson. 

Drafting CBs Jarrian Jones in the third round and Deantre Prince in the fifth helps soften the blow of losing Williams, but Jacksonville had a real opportunity to revamp its secondary to help keep up with the improved WR groups in the division (Stefon Diggs in Houston, Adonai Mitchell in Indianapolis, Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd in Tennessee) and failed.

Doug Pederson may not be the guy

At this point, it feels like Pederson is living off his Super Bowl championship with the Philadelphia Eagles from 2017. Aside from that one season, his head-coaching record is a pedestrian 50-50-1, including an 18-16 record in two seasons with Jacksonville, and his teams don’t do anything particularly well.

Under his guidance, the Jaguars aren’t really a threat to make a serious playoff run, and Trevor Lawrence is still an above-average QB but not an elite one. The Jaguars have just four playoff wins since 2000, and it just doesn’t feel like Pederson is the guy to get them to the fifth.

Too much pressure on Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence has a potentially big payday riding on the 2024 season, and many expected him to ascend into the top tier of NFL QBs by now. Instead, he’s had a consistently good body of work but nothing that will blow anyone away.

The Jaguars feel like a team that should be competing for playoff spots and division titles every year, but they can’t seem to get over the hump of being mediocre, and despite how well Lawrence does or doesn’t play, he’s always going to be pointed at as one of the reasons why the team is stuck in the middle of the pack. Unlike at Clemson, Lawrence doesn’t have a super team around him that can pick up the slack if he’s not on his game every week.