Dec 1, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen during the second half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

Colts Have Intriguing Playoff Odds Ahead of Broncos Tilt

Originally posted on Indianapolis Colts on SI
By Sean Ackerman | Last updated Dec 10, 2024 8:00 AM ET

The Indianapolis Colts (6-7) are amid preparations for a clash against the Denver Broncos (8-5) that will have big implications in the AFC playoff race. The Colts are sitting one spot out of the playoffs and are two games behind the Broncos who currently claim the 7th seed.

According to The Upshot, a New York Times playoff simulator, the Colts currently have a 29% chance to make the postseason. If Indy is able to walk out of Denver with a win, those odds would boost up to a favorable 66% chance. If they lose, they would hold a mere 8% chance.

Winning each of their final four games would give the Colts a 99% chance of making the playoffs and a 32% chance of winning the division. Although the Houston Texans hold a tiebreaker and a two-game lead over Indy, they have a tough schedule ahead.

If the Texans lose three of their final games against either the Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, or Tennessee Titans and the Colts win out, Indy would win the division. It's not likely but it's not impossible, either.

The teams currently holding a wild card spot in the AFC are the Broncos, the Ravens, and the Los Angeles Chargers. Every one of these teams has an 8-5 record, so any losses by them would help the Colts' odds tremendously.

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE:
(w/ 4 Weeks Left)

#1 Chiefs (12-1) [Clinched Div]
-
#2 Bills (10-3) [Clinched Div]
#3 Steelers (10-3)
#4 Texans (8-5)
-
#5 Ravens (8-5)
#6 Chargers (8-5)
#7 Broncos (8-5)

IN THE HUNT:
Fins (6-7)
Colts (6-7)

HANGING ON: Bengals (4-8)#NFL
— Sports & TV (@SPORTSandTV1) December 9, 2024

Should the Colts win this weekend, they would need the Broncos to lose again to sneak into a wild-card spot. The Broncos have to play the Chargers, the Chiefs, and the Cincinnati Bengals. Once again, those aren't easy games. The Colts could easily find themselves in playoff contention as long as another team does some of the dirty work.

If the Colts lose any of their final three games after beating the Broncos, their odds would still sit around 65%. Indy will close out the season with games against the Titans, the New York Giants, and the Jacksonville Jaguars. None of these teams have over three wins, so the Colts realistically should be able to win out.

The Upshot says there are 37 quintillion different ways this NFL season could end. So really, who knows what could happen? The Colts will only be able to control what they do on the field and that's what's most important heading into Mile High Stadium.

This article first appeared on Indianapolis Colts on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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