Could Cardinals Star Take Step Back in 2025?

The Arizona Cardinals have nothing if not a strong running game. The talent present in the RB room begins with a true workhorse in James Conner, but the possible breakout of second-year back Trey Benson adds another dimension into the unit.

Conner has put forward excellent seasons with Arizona, earning himself a two-year extension after his second-straight 1,000-yard season in 2024. He managed 4.6 yards per carry and eight touchdowns, with another 414 yards and a score through the air.

Conner is the ultimate Cardinal, with the perfect combination of power, toughness, personality and humility. There's no reason to believe the durable veteran will slow down to a notably poor clip, but there is reason to believe his numbers could take a bit of a dip heading into 2025.

Here's why:

The Prediction: 190 carries, 890 yards, 5 TD, 25 receptions, 175 yards, 2 TD

Don't freak out just yet, Cardinals fans. It's not that Conner has lost his step, or that he is likely to play poorly in the coming season. But there are a variety of factors at play.

For one, the Cardinals greatly need a more balanced attack. The run-first philosophy works, but eventually, too hard of a committment to that style becomes one-dimensional. Arizona was limited through the air in 2024, but should see notable improvement from Marvin Harrison Jr., another solid year out of Trey McBride, and hopefully more consistent production out of QB Kyler Murray.

A bit of a scheme adjustment should see better passing numbers as well. What suffers is the raw production of the run game, but not the overall efficiency.

Secondarily, Conner is entering his age-30 season. Running backs across the league have begun to defeat the myth that the position is less valuable as they age. Conner seems to only be improving with age.

But Conner played in 16 games in 2024, despite missing four games in both the 2022 and 2023 season. It's not that he's injury prone, but a heavy workload for a physical archetype of back could lend itself to some appearances on the injury report.

Then there's Benson. sitting behind Conner. He only carried the ball 63 times, but he matched Conner's 4.6 yards per carry clip, picking up 290 yards and a touchdown, with 59 more through the air.

Benson showcased significant development, and the Cardinals are clearly invested in him. It would be a surprise to not see him split a somewhat higher number of carries, even if Conner remains the workhorse he's capable of being.

This case is a simple regression to the mean. Not in talent, but in overall efficiency, opportunity, and volume of carries. The combination of a hopefully improved passing attack with a bigger split for Benson could lead to a "worse" season for Conner, but odds are he'll still be rumbling down the field as dangerously as ever.