ESPN Reveals Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl, NFC South Odds

What a difference a year and a new quarterback (or two) makes for the Atlanta Falcons. While they're not considered in the same class as the San Francisco 49ers, the Falcons are getting some Super Bowl talk ahead of the 2024 NFL season.

After grossly underachieving against an historically weak schedule, Raheem Morris is looking to lead quarterback Kirk Cousins and the Falcons back to the playoffs. The Falcons are considered heavy favorites to make the postseason, but that's in part to their schedule.

What kind of chances does the team have beyond playing an 18th game?

Seth Walder of ESPN analytics released a series of odds and percentages based on their Football Power Index (FPI). The Falcons come in 15th overall on the FPI. Walder doesn't break it down offense vs. defense, but one might think the perception of the offense for the Falcons is higher than the defense going into the season.

Walder is a by-the-numbers analytics believer. He described the Falcons selecting a running back with the No. 8 last year pick as "inexplicable." He wasn't a fan of Atlanta doubling up on quarterback in the offseason, but still thinks the Falcons should win the NFC South.

"According to the FPI, it's more than likely (Atlanta wins the division)," wrote Walder. "With Cousins walking into the woebegone NFC South, Atlanta is set up to take the division -- despite the Falcons having burned the No. 8 pick on another quarterback. Even though the FPI isn't overly fond of Atlanta -- considering it the 15th-best team in the NFL -- the Falcons are still clearly the top team in the division, with the Bucs (22nd), Saints (26th) and Panthers (32nd) lagging.

"Atlanta is projected to win 9.6 games, the highest of any team outside FPI's top 10, because it has the easiest schedule in the league by a healthy margin."

Not exactly a ringing endorsement from one of the World Wide Leader's analytics experts, but the numbers also point to more than the possibility of beating up on a bad division.

The Falcons are listed as one of 12 teams with at least a 3% chance of making the Super Bowl. They're the 12th team at 3%, but they're keeping better company than those most likely to have the No. 1 pick.

At the end of the day, odds and percentages aren't going to win a single game in 2024. However a lot of front-office decisions are based on analytics, and it's obvious the Falcons have improved on paper this offseason.

Come September, it will be up to Morris and Cousins to prove the Atlanta Falcons have improved on the field against former head coach Arthur Smith and the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1.