King of Props: Single coverage

In 17 of the 19 seasons between 2001 and 2019, the Patriots emerged as the champions of the AFC East. They established a two-decade dynasty by appearing in nine Super Bowls and winning six. But in the years since, the division has been dominated by the Bills, a franchise that infamously reached four straight Super Bowls in the ’90s but has yet to win one. As these rivals prepare to meet for the first time this season, a back out of the backfield gets our backing for tonight’s prop:

The bet: Over 10½ receiving yards for Bills running back Devin Singletary (FanDuel)

When his team faces a bad secondary, Singletary isn’t needed as a pass catcher. His four worst receiving games are against the Titans, Steelers, Vikings, and Lions – and they literally constitute the league’s bottom four in passing yards allowed.

But the Patriots rank in the top 10 for that statistic, holding their opponents to less than 200 passing yards per game. Josh Allen will less often find open receivers downfield, which necessitates checkdowns and dump-offs to his running back. And that role still largely belongs to Singletary, who ran 33 pass routes last week.

Singletary has cleared this number in Buffalo’s other seven games this season, posting career highs in targets (11), catches (9), and receiving yards (78) in a Week 3 road loss to the Dolphins. Playing in the raucous environment of Gillette Stadium, he should get there again tonight.