Let's Talk About Calvin Ridley and the Chicago Bears...

Let's cut to the chase. The Chicago Bears are expected to add two or more receivers in this quickly approaching offseason. One or two of those players will likely be added in the NFL Draft. However, one of those players could come in via free agency. Enter perhaps the best receiver in the upcoming free agent class: Calvin Ridley. 

Ridley was originally drafted by the Atlanta Falcons in 2018 as the 26th pick in the NFL Draft. He had a number of successful seasons as Julio Jones' "Robin" before taking over as the top dog and putting up strong numbers. Then, the injuries and gambling suspension came, forcing him to sit out until 2023. 

While sitting out in 2022, Ridley was dealt from the Falcons to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Last season, Ridley recorded his second 1,000-yard season, but had quite the up and down experience. Some weeks he popped off for 100+ yards, some weeks it was a touchdown or two, and other weeks he was non-existent in the final box score. Analyzing Ridley's season was full of ups and downs and infuriating inconsistency.

With that in mind, how much of it was his fault? Were there some weeks where the Jaguars were just not prepared? Was Ridley expected to be a decoy for others such as Christian Kirk and Evan Engram? Was Trevor Lawrence not living up to the hype as a former No. 1 pick? All of these were questions that, from afar, we can easily ask. 

Despite all the uncertainties, there is belief that Ridley turns it around. Per Jaguars' great Fred Taylor, there is belief that Ridley has more left in the tank and is the worth the investment a team potentially makes in him this offseason. Ridley just turned 29 at the end of the season and will look to build on his season after more than a year removed from football. 

With his season in mind, should the Bears invest? On the surface, 1,000 yards looks great. However, Ridley had some weird numbers between his up and down performances (highlighted here) and his catch percentage. Ridley was targeted often, but his catch percentage was far less than top receivers such as AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and even DJ Moore. 

Most top receivers catch 67% of their targets or better as highlighted by some of the above examples. Check our their Pro-Football Reference pages, the math is there. However, Ridley recorded just a 55.7% catch percentage in 2023. Perhaps that lent into the frustration of his up and down season. The real question is, can he bounce back?

Ironically, Ridley's catch percentage has never exceeded 70% in any season, and has not exceeded 60% since 2020. Given the number of quarterbacks Ridley has played with, one could say there is adjustment to the others on the offense. However, the truly elite receivers in the league make enough catches to have a higher number as their catch percentage than Ridley has. 

With some of these ideas in mind, the talent Ridley possesses is undeniable. However, unless he's willing to take true No. 2 receiver money in Chicago, there are other positions on the defensive line, at safety, and on the offensive line where the Bears could upgrade the team. If the price is right, Ridley makes sense in Chicago. Right now, his market value is $17.5 million per season per Spotrac. But, if he is looking for top dollar, the numbers may suggest that the investment isn't worth it for a team like the Bears.