NFL betting guide: Dougherty's Week 5 picks and predictions

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday, Oct. 6, 1 p.m., CBS
Spread: Bengals -2.5
Total: 48.5

Yeah, this one's going on the big screen. The Ravens crushed the Buffalo Bills in Week 4 to improve to 2-2 after their 0-2 start, while the Bengals may have saved their season with a win against the Carolina Panthers to get to 1-3. 

Baltimore has been the best rushing team in the NFL so far, averaging 2203 rushing yards per game. That could be an issue for Cincinnati's 25th-ranked run defense. On the other side, Joe Burrow is starting to come alive, and the Ravens have struggled to defend the pass all year. Expect points in this one.

Mismatch to exploit: Ravens rush offense vs. Bengals run defense

As we just mentioned, Baltimore's greatest strength is Cincinnati's biggest weakness. Take a look at Lamar Jackson and/or Derrick Henry to go over their rushing yards props.

Prediction: Bengals 30, Ravens 24

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

Sunday, Oct. 6, 1 p.m., CBS
Spread: Bills -1.5
Total: 47.5

Hopefully you have two big screens for this Sunday! The Bills are coming off a blowout loss to the Ravens, but this is still one of the best teams in the NFL as long as Josh Allen is calling the shots. The offense should be in for a bounce-back performance against the Texans, which let Anthony Richardson and Darnold beat them down the field.

The Texans are 3-1, but something feels off about this team. Houston barely beat the Indianapolis Colts, got smoked by the Vikings and should've lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars. We need to see a full, 60-minute performance from this group soon.

Mismatch to exploit: James Cook vs. Texans linebackers

The weakness of this Houston team is its linebacker room, so the Bills will look to feed Cook in the run and pass games all day. Take a look at his over rushing + receiving prop.

Prediction: Bills 27, Texans 24

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, Oct. 6, 1 p.m., CBS
Spread: Jaguars -2.5
Total: 46.5

Anthony Richardson left last week's win against the Pittsburgh Steelers with an oblique injury, and Joe Flacco came in to save the day. If Richardson can't go in Week 5, Flacco will be back in our lives. We'll never complain about that. Jonathan Taylor may also miss this game due to an ankle sprain.

As for the Jaguars, they might be the favorites to be the next team to fire its head coach. Jacksonville has been in a position to win three games this season, and Doug Pederson is taking all the heat for losing them. Trevor Lawrence's rough start to the season isn't helping his case.

Mismatch to exploit: Christian Kirk vs. Colts secondary

The Colts secondary has been a sieve all season, while Christian Kirk is starting to establish himself as the No. 1 target with 22 targets and 15 catches over the last two weeks. Take a look at his over catches or receiving yards prop. 

Prediction: Jaguars 24, Colts 19

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears

Sunday, Oct. 6, 1 p.m., FOX
Spread: Bears -3.5
Total: 41.5

The Panthers are turning into an all-offense, no-defense team with Andy Dalton under center. Carolina has put up 60 points and 812 yards of offense over the last two weeks, but the defense still ranks dead last in the NFL in points allowed per game.

The Bears are the antithesis of the Panthers, as they rank eighth in points allowed per game but 31st in yards per play. Caleb Williams is steadily improving from week to week, so this is a great matchup for his breakout game. 

Mismatch to exploit: Jaylon Johnson vs. Diontae Johnson

Diontae Johnson has been Dalton's favorite receiver so far, but this is the toughest matchup he's faced against Jaylon Johnson. Check out his receiving yards under. 

Prediction: Bears 20, Panthers 19

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

Sunday, Oct. 6, 1 p.m., FOX
Spread: Patriots -1.5
Total: 36.5

Woof. You don't have to watch this one if you don't want to. The Dolphins averaged 3.9 yards per play with Skylar Thompson and 3.4 yards per play with Tyler Huntley, so it might not matter who starts this one. Mike McDaniel hasn't been able to make this offense work without Tua Tagovailoa. 

The Patriots wouldn't be able to make their offense work if Tom Brady was back under center. The offensive line is atrocious and has 10 players on the injury report in some way. New England's protection issues are only going to get worse. 

Mismatch to exploit: Both offensive lines vs. both defensive lines

Both defenses will have major advantages in the trenches here, so loading up on rushing prop unders on the running backs seems like a good idea.

Prediction: Dolphins 15, Patriots 13

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Sunday, Oct. 6, 4:05 p.m., FOX
Spread: Broncos -1.5
Total: 35.5

The Raiders beat the Browns last week despite Maxx Crosby sitting out and Davante Adams gearing up to request a trade. That just shows you how bad it's gotten for Cleveland. Adams likely won't suit up again in Week 5, so we're in for a heavy dose of Jakobi Myers and Brock Bowers.

The Broncos are coming off back-to-back upset wins against the Buccaneers and Jets, as Bo Nix is starting to look much better than he did in Weeks 1 and 2. Denver's defense is running the show, ranking first in the NFL in yards allowed per completion and third in points per game allowed.

Mismatch to exploit: Jakobi Myers vs. Patrick Surtain II

Surtain has been locking down opposing No. 1 receivers all year, and if that's going to be Myers for the Raiders, he's going to have a tough time getting any separation. Give a look to his receiving yards under. 

Prediction: Raiders 17, Broncos 13

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

Sunday, Oct. 6, 4:05 p.m., FOX
Spread: 49ers -7.5
Total: 49.5

The Cardinals hype has died down since Arizona kept it close against the Bills and smoked the Los Angeles Rams to start the season. Since then, the defense has gotten gashed by the Detroit Lions and Commanders, and Kyler Murray hasn't looked the same. 

The 49ers rolled over the New England Patriots in Week 4, but that doesn't erase their choke job against the Rams or blowout loss to the Vikings. Brock Purdy has been fantastic with his best weapons missing time, but star linebacker Fred Warner is questionable to play this week due to an ankle injury. 

Mismatch to exploit: Brock Purdy vs. Cardinals secondary

Purdy has thrown for 899 yards over the last three weeks, while the Cardinals rank 31st in the NFL in yards allowed per completion. Check out Purdy's passing yards over.

Prediction: 49ers 29, Cardinals 24

Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, Oct. 6, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Spread: Packers -3
Total: 48.5

Jordan Love returned last week and put up 389 yards and four touchdowns against the Vikings, but much of that came in garbage time. He also threw three interceptions and allowed Minnesota to take a 28-0 lead in the game. Which Love will show up this week?

The Rams are doing the best they can with the slew of injuries they're dealing with, but the defense can't hold up against above-average offenses. Green Bay should be able to bully Los Angeles in the trenches.

Mismatch to exploit: Josh Jacobs vs. Rams rush defense

Jacobs didn't get many touches last week due to how the game played out, but he should dominate against a Rams defense that ranks dead last in rushing yards allowed per game. Take a look at his over rushing yards. 

Prediction: Packers 30, Rams 24

New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, Oct. 6, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Spread: Seahawks -6
Total: 43.5

There isn't much to be excited about if you're a Giants fan, but Malik Nabers is giving them a lot of hope for the future. The star rookie has already racked up 386 receiving yards and three touchdowns, but Daniel Jones and the defense have held this team back so far.

The Seahawks put up a good fight against the Lions in Week 4, and they now rank fifth in total offense and eighth in yards per play under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. The issue in Seattle is a defense with eight players on the injury report. We could see some points in this one.

Mismatch to exploit: Devin Singletary vs. Seahawks front seven

Seattle could be missing seven total players along the defensive line and linebackers, so take a look at Singletary to score an anytime touchdown.

Prediction: Giants 26, Seahawks 24

Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, Oct. 6, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Spread: Steelers -1.5
Total: 43.5

The Cowboys handled the Browns but looked completely outmatched against the Saints and Ravens and barely squeaked by the Giants. This isn't a very good football team, and Micah Parsons might not be able to suit up this week due to an ankle injury.

The Steelers are a good, not great, football team with a ferocious defense, and the offense started humming in Week 4 when Justin Fields and George Pickens hooked up seven times for 113 yards. Pittsburgh has a ton of upside if the offense can start pulling its weight. 

Mismatch to exploit: Najee Harris vs. Cowboys rush defense

The Cowboys have already given up eight rushing touchdowns in four games. Take a look at Harris to find the end zone. 

Prediction: Steelers 20, Cowboys 19

New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs

Monday, Oct. 7, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Spread: Chiefs -5.5
Total: 43.5

After two impressively dominant wins to start the season, the Saints have come back to earth with two straight losses. Is the Derek Carr-led offense really that good, or did it just have the pleasure of facing the Panthers and Cowboys in the first two weeks? A 2-2 record feels right for New Orleans, but this team can beat anyone in the league.

The Chiefs can't seem to dodge the injury bug. After Isiah Pacheco went down, Rashee Rice injured his knee in Week 4 and could be out for an extended period of time. Patrick Mahomes will have to rely on rookie Xavier Worthy and JuJu Smith-Schuster to pace the offense for now. 

Mismatch to exploit: Chiefs offense vs. uncertainty

With Rice and Pacheco out, it's anyone's guess as to who will be featured near the goal line. This could be a game to take some long-shot anytime touchdown bets on Noah Gray, Justin Watson or Mecole Hardman. 

Prediction: Saints 23, Chiefs 20