NFL betting guide: Week 1 picks and predictions 

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers

Friday, Sept. 6, 8:15 p.m. ET, Peacock
Spread: Eagles -2.5
Total: 48.5

The NFL ventures to Brazil for the first time for Friday night's NFC bout between the Eagles and Packers, and this game is all about the offenses. Philadelphia has an All-Star team on offense with Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley and Jahan Dotson now in the fold. As long as this new-look offensive line can hold up without Jason Kelce, the Eagles should be one of the highest-scoring teams in the NFL this season. 

The Packers are also expected to light up the scoreboard in 2024-25 considering how Jordan Love looked down the stretch last season. The receiving corps is the same as last year, but the Packers upgraded at running back by adding Josh Jacobs. 

Mismatch to exploit: Jacobs vs. Eagles linebackers
The Eagles might have an elite offense this year, but they have a glaring weakness at the linebacker position. Nakobe Dean, Zack Baun and rookie Jeremiah Trotter Jr. are going to be their top three options with Devin White ruled out for the game. Jacobs to go over his rushing + receiving yards prop seems like a good look.

Prediction: Eagles 31, Packers 28

Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears

Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Bears -4.5
Total: 44.5

Speaking of all-hype teams, the Bears enter the 2024-25 season with sky-high expectations. No. 1 pick Caleb Williams will be making his first NFL start, and he's set up to succeed right away with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and D'Andre Swift at his disposal. Chicago's defense is solid at every level with Montez Sweat, T.J. Edwards and Jaylon Johnson.

The Titans moved off Mike Vrabel in the offseason and replaced him with Brian Callahan. Will Levis has taken over as the starting quarterback, and he has a pair of new weapons to feed in Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard. Jeffery Simmons, Ernest Jones IV and Sneed will pace an underrated defense. 

Mismatch to exploit: Caleb Williams vs. high expectations
Williams is an exceptional talent, but he freestyles with the ball in his hands and always tries to make something out of nothing. He'll need to learn that doesn't work consistently in the NFL, so maybe target him to throw an interception or lose a fumble in Game 1.  

Prediction: Titans 23, Bears 19

Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills

Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Bills -6.5
Total: 48.5

It's hard to imagine the Cardinals are the team generating more hype than the Bills in this matchup, but that's what we're seeing across the football world. Arizona's offense should be fantastic with a healthy Kyler Murray, James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride leading the way, but the defense still leaves a lot to be desired.

Many expect the Bills to take a step back after losing Stefon Diggs to the Texans, but that's disrespectful to Josh Allen's greatness. The new wide receiving corps of Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel should be more than enough to keep this offense humming, and James Cook should be in for a big year on the ground.

Mismatch to exploit: Josh Allen vs. Cardinals defensive line
The Cardinals ranked 31st in the NFL last season in points allowed per game, and that likely won't change with the lack of talent they have on that side of the ball, especially along the defensive line. Allen is going to have a ton of time to throw or take off and run in this matchup, so give a look to Buffalo's team total over.

Prediction: Bills 31, Cardinals 26

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Falcons -3.5
Total: 42.5

This is one of the most fascinating matchups on the Week 1 slate. Kirk Cousins makes his Falcons debut after suffering a torn Achilles last season, and he has a plethora of dynamic weapons to feed with Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Atlanta also added Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons in the offseason to bulk up its defense. 

The Steelers are beginning a new era with Russell Wilson at the helm, and they have blue chippers at every level on defense with T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and new linebacker Patrick Queen. If Wilson has a bounce-back season, Pittsburgh could surprise some people. 

Mismatch to exploit: Steelers experience vs. Falcons newness
The Falcons were the all-hype team this offseason, but that doesn't always pan out in Week 1. They're working in new head coach Raheem Morris, two new coordinators and a new quarterback coming off a major injury. Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin is entering his 18th year as the Steelers head coach. Don't be surprised if Pittsburgh pulls off the upset.  
Prediction: Steelers 23, Falcons 20

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints

Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Saints -4
Total: 41.5

The Panthers are hoping for a bounce-back campaign after going 2-15 last year, and they pegged Dave Canales as the man to get it done. Even if Canales is an upgrade over Frank Reich, Bryce Young needs to improve if Carolina has any chance of being competitive this season. 

The Saints return with their mediocre coach-quarterback combo of Dennis Allen and Derek Carr, but those aren't the only issues facing this team. New Orleans, which is normally strong in the trenches, looks to be below average along both its offensive and defensive lines. 

Mismatch to exploit: Dennis Allen and Derek Carr vs. expectations
Never trust this version of the Saints when they're expected to win. New Orleans went 4-8-1 against the spread and only 7-6 straight up as a favorite last season, and the Panthers should be better than they were in 2023.
 
Prediction: Saints 17, Panthers 16

Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants

Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Vikings -1.5
Total: 41.5

Following a few wildly intriguing games, now we have to move on to the Giants and Vikings. Daniel Jones has a new toy at his disposal in rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers, but New York is severely lacking in talent outside of him now that Barkley is gone. The Giants do have an elite defensive line with Dexter Lawrence, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Brian Burns, but there isn't much else to like. 

The Vikings downgraded at quarterback from Cousins to Sam Darnold, but Justin Jefferson and new running back Aaron Jones should still have success in this offense. The defense, though, might be one of the worst units in the NFL this season.

Mismatch to exploit: Malik Nabers vs. Vikings secondary
Nabers has been tearing it up in camp all preseason, and he's ready to break out as one of the most talented young wide receivers in the league. The Vikings don't have much talent in the secondary, and the Giants will feed Nabers out of the gates.  

Prediction: Giants 20, Vikings 19

New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Bengals -7.5
Total: 40.5

Uncertainty is always a theme of Week 1, and that's especially true in this matchup. The Bengals have a ton of question marks on offense with Joe Burrow still dealing with his wrist injury and Ja'Marr Chase uncertain for Sunday due to his ongoing contract dispute. We have no clue what this passing attack is going to look like, and New England's biggest strength is its secondary.

As for the offense, the Patriots might have the worst group in the NFL. Jacoby Brissett will start at quarterback, and he's surrounded by an uninspiring group of weapons and an abysmal offensive line. This is going to be an ugly watch.

Mismatch to exploit: Bengals defensive line vs. Patriots offensive line
This Patriots offensive line has the chance to be one of the worst units we've seen in years, and here come Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard. Look out for Hendrickson and Hubbard to go over their sack props. 

Prediction: Bengals 17, Patriots 13

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins

Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Dolphins -3.5
Total: 48.5

If you like explosive plays and points, this is going to be the game for you. The Dolphins return with a dynamic offense led by Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. They'll light up the scoreboard early in the season under Mike McDaniel. Miami improved its defense by adding Jordan Poyer, Calais Campbell and Kendall Fuller, but the pass rush will suffer without Bradley Chubb on the field.

The Jaguars remodeled their wide receiver room with Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr., but their success on offense will depend on Trevor Lawrence taking the next step and the offensive line keeping him upright. 

Mismatch to exploit: Dolphins passing attack vs. Jaguars secondary

The Jaguars ranked 26th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game last season, and their solution was to add Darnell Savage and a washed-up Ronald Darby. McDaniel had a full offseason to scheme up an offensive game plan for this one, so take a look at Hill and Waddle to go over their receiving yards props.

Prediction: Dolphins 30, Jaguars 20

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Texans -2.5
Total: 48.5

These should be two fun offenses if everyone stays healthy. C.J. Stroud returns after a historic rookie season with Nico Collins, a healthy Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs now in the fold. The Texans also added Joe Mixon in the offseason, and they have some serious talent on defense with Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter, Derek Stingley Jr. and Azeez Al-Shaair.

Anthony Richardson is back for the Colts after his exciting rookie season was cut short by injuries. His upside is enticing, but he's appeared in only 28 competitive football games since 2020. We'll believe it when we see it. 

Mismatch to exploit: Texans passing attack vs. Colts secondary 
The Colts had trouble limiting explosive passing plays last year, especially against the Texans. Stroud put up 648 passing yards and four touchdowns in two games against Indy, so take a look at his over passing yards in this matchup.  

Prediction: Texans 

Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Seahawks -6
Total: 41.5

Both the Broncos and Seahawks enter the season with new faces and question marks on offense. With Wilson out of town, Denver will be rolling with rookie first-round pick Bo Nix as its starting quarterback. The Seahawks still have the same offensive personnel around Geno Smith, but new head coach Mike Macdonald and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb will kickstart a new era in Seattle.

On defense, Denver doesn't have much to write home about aside from Pat Surtain II, while the Seahawks have a ton of upside with Devon Witherspoon, Leonard Williams and Riq Woolen under Macdonald.
 
Mismatch to exploit: Bo Nix vs. Mike Macdonald 
Macdonald is a defensive mastermind who led the Ravens to one of the most ferocious units in the NFL. He's going to have a lot of fun coaching up this young, talented defensive unit in Seattle, and that'll start in Week 1 against a rookie QB. Take a look at Nix to throw a pick or go under his passing props.

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Broncos 13

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday, Sept. 8, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Chargers -3
Total: 40.5

The Jim Harbaugh era in Los Angeles gets underway with an early division battle against the Raiders. Even though the Chargers have a special talent at quarterback in Justin Herbert, this is likely going to be a run-heavy team behind new additions Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins. Keenan Allen is gone, so it'll be up to Josh Palmer and Ladd McConkey to pace the passing attack. Harbaugh has plenty to work with on the defensive end with Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa and Derwin James, too.

The Raiders are also going to pound the rock under Antonio Pierce, but the question is whether they have the personnel to do it effectively with Zamir White and Alexander Mattison leading the RB room. Las Vegas has a ferocious defensive line led by Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins.

Mismatch to exploit: Raiders run-heavy offense vs. Chargers defensive line
The Chargers have dangerous pass rushers on defense, but their run defense might be an issue to start the season. The Raiders are going to feed White on the ground just as they did in 2023 when he rushed 84 times for 397 yards over the last four games of the season. White to go over his rushing yards prop could be the play.

Prediction: Chargers 19, Raiders 16

Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns

Sunday, Sept. 8, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Browns -2.5
Total: 41.5
In a matchup between two defensive-minded teams, it's no surprise to see one of the lowest totals of the week. The Browns allowed fewer than 14 points per game at home last season, while the Cowboys might struggle early in the season considering CeeDee Lamb didn't get a full offseason of practice in.  

Nick Chubb is still recovering from his knee injury, so the Browns will start the season with Jerome Ford leading the backfield. Deshaun Watson needs a bounce-back season to revive his career, but he hasn't shown any signs of returning to the elite quarterback he once was. The first team to 17 points should win this one.
 
Mismatch to exploit: Cowboys running game vs. Browns front seven
Dallas will start the season with Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle as its top two running backs. Good luck getting anything going on the ground against this ferocious Browns front seven. Take a look at all the Cowboys rushing unders being offered.  

Prediction: Browns 16, Cowboys 13

Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Sunday, Sept. 8, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Buccaneers -3.5
Total: 43.5

The Commanders are starting a new era with rookie QB Jayden Daniels. He's going to establish himself as one of the most dynamic rushing quarterbacks in the league right away, but it might take some time for him to become an efficient passer behind a questionable offensive line and with only one proven wide receiver in Terry McLaurin.
 
The Buccaneers return with the same offensive core of Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rachaad White, but they could take a step back without Canales calling the shots.  

Mismatch to exploit: Buccaneers running game vs. Commanders front seven
Washington still has a fantastic defensive line, and it added an elite run-stopper in linebacker Bobby Wagner. That's bad news for White, who averaged an unimpressive 3.6 yards per carry last season. Give a look to his rushing yards under.  

Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Commanders 23

Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions

Sunday, Sept. 8, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Spread: Lions -3.5
Total: 50.5

This one should be fun. In a rematch of last year's NFC wild-card matchup, the Rams and Lions are ready to light up the scoreboard behind their explosive offenses. Detroit has the whole package with a veteran quarterback in Jared Goff, a thunder-and-lightning backfield with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, two star receiving options in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta and an elite offensive line.
As for the Rams, they'll be airing it out all season to Puka Nacua and a healthy Cooper Kupp. Kyren Williams also returns after a fantastic 2023 season, but the defense comes with multiple question marks with the departure of leading tackler Ernest Jones IV.
 
Mismatch to exploit: Lions offensive line vs. Rams defensive line
Detroit's offensive line is the most dominant unit in the league, and it's going up against an unproven front seven on the other side. Montgomery and Gibbs should both have monster games on the ground, so take a look at their rushing yards props and anytime touchdown props.  

Prediction: Lions 38, Rams 27

New York Jets @ San Francisco 49ers

Monday, Sept. 9, 8:15 p.m. ET ABC/ESPN
Spread: 49ers -4.5
Total: 43.5
 
What a way to close out the Week 1 slate. The Jets' hype machine is back up and running now that Aaron Rodgers is healthy, and he's surrounded by two insanely talented weapons in Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. The defense also projects to be one of the best units in the NFL with Sauce Gardner, Quinnen Williams and C.J. Mosley leading the way.  

The 49ers return almost an identical team from last year, but Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams all missed extended time in the preseason. It might take San Fran a few weeks to get over its Super Bowl hangover.
 
Mismatch to exploit: 49ers offense vs. rust
This isn't going to be the same 49ers offense we're used to seeing. Aiyuk and Williams just started practicing after lengthy contract disputes, and McCaffrey is nursing a calf injury. Without much practice time under their belts, maybe give a look to the 49ers to go under their team total in the first half against a strong defense.

Prediction: Jets 23, 49ers 21