NFL Week 16 betting guide

We're entering the home stretch of the 2024 NFL season. There are only three weeks left for teams to make their final playoff pushes, and that all starts on Week 16 with a few critical matchups for playoff seeding. Let's go game-by-game and break down every matchup with predictions and betting strategies for Week 16. 

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers

Thursday, Dec. 19, 8:15 p.m., Amazon Prime Video
Spread: Chargers -2.5
Total: 42

Week 16 begins with a crucial AFC West matchup between the 9-5 Broncos and the 8-6 Chargers. Both teams are in good shape in the AFC wild-card race, but the winner on Thursday night will have the inside track to the No. 6 seed. 

The biggest story heading into this matchup is Justin Herbert's nagging ankle injury. Herbert isn't as mobile as he normally is, which could be an issue against a Denver defense that ranks third in the NFL in sack rate. The Broncos are going to bring the heat and force Herbert to make plays with his feet. 

Mismatch to exploit: Courtland Sutton vs. Chargers secondary

Mike Evans exposed LA's banged-up secondary with 159 yards and two touchdowns last week, so the Broncos will look to replicate that with Sutton. Check out his over receiving yards.

Prediction: Broncos 22, Chargers 17

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs 

Saturday, Dec. 21, 1 p.m., NBC
Spread: Chiefs -3.5
Total: 41.5

The NFL is hooking us up with two Saturday games this week, starting with this matchup between AFC playoff teams. This has been the craziest line to follow all week due to the ankle injury Patrick Mahomes suffered against the Cleveland Browns.

Houston got out to a three-point favorite when it looked as if Carson Wentz was going to start, but the spread flipped to Chiefs -3.5 after positive practice news on Mahomes. The two-time MVP will be able to suit up in Week 16.

Mismatch to exploit: Dalton Schultz vs. Chiefs defense

The Chiefs give up the most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends (74.6), so check out Schultz to go over his yards prop.

Prediction: Chiefs 20, Texans 19

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

Saturday, Dec. 21, 4:30 p.m., FOX
Spread: Ravens -6.5
Total: 45.5

The last few weeks have taught us how much George Pickens means to this Steelers offense. Russell Wilson, who's thrown for 271.0 yards per game with Pickens in the lineup this year, is averaging just 143.0 passing yards in the last two games without his star receiver. Pickens still hasn't practiced due to his hamstring injury.

The Ravens outplayed the Steelers in their first matchup, but three turnovers and two missed field goals by Justin Tucker led to a two-point loss. They should be able to handle business this time around if they avoid those mistakes, especially if Pickens doesn't play. 

Mismatch to exploit: Russell Wilson without George Pickens

Wilson turns into the checkdown king without his field-stretching weapon. Give a look to his passing yards under if Pickens is ruled out.

Prediction: Ravens 27, Steelers 17

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday, Dec. 22, 1 p.m., CBS
Spread: Bengals -7.5
Total: 46.5

The Browns have seen enough of Jameis Winston after he threw eight interceptions in his last three games, so they're making the switch to Dorian Thompson-Robinson this week. DTR went 1-2 in three starts last season, and the Browns were outscored, 67-28, in those games. 

It's hard to picture the Browns keeping up with the Bengals, which are averaging 34.0 points over their last six games. Cincinnati still has a slim chance to make the playoffs with a win, and a Chargers loss on TNF would help that cause.

Mismatch to exploit: Jerome Ford vs. Bengals run defense

Ford will have a big role in this game with Nick Chubb sidelined, and the Bengals have given up seven rushing touchdowns over their last six games. Check out Ford's anytime touchdown odds at plus money.

Prediction: Bengals 27, Browns 13

New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, Dec. 22, 1 p.m., FOX
Spread: Falcons -8.5
Total: 42

The Falcons are also making a quarterback change, as rookie Michael Penix Jr. will start this week instead of Kirk Cousins. The move makes sense considering Atlanta is still in position to win the NFC South, and Cousins has thrown just one touchdown and nine interceptions over his last five starts.

On the other side, the Giants are rolling with Drew Lock under center. Lock has completed only 51.1 percent of his pass attempts this season and still hasn't thrown a touchdown pass. The Giants haven't won a game since Oct. 6, so their focus is on the No. 1 overall pick in 2025.

Mismatch to exploit: Bijan Robinson vs. Giants defense

The Giants have 10 defensive players on injured reserve and 11 more listed as questionable. Robinson might go for 200 total yards in this matchup.

Prediction: Falcons 31, Giants 13

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, Dec. 22, 1 p.m., CBS
Spread: Colts -3.5
Total: 42.5

We're not done with the quarterback carousels just yet. The Titans are switching from Will Levis to Mason Rudolph in Week 16. Rudolph put up 209 passing yards and two touchdowns last week after replacing Levis, so Tennessee's passing offense should at least be serviceable against a Colts defense that ranks 29th in the NFL in completion percentage allowed (69.7 percent).

As for the Colts, Anthony Richardson isn't showing much improvement in the passing game. The Florida product has completed fewer than 45 percent of his passes in four of his last six starts. The Colts will ride the ground game against Tennessee's third-ranked passing defense. 

Mismatch to exploit: Titans secondary vs. Anthony Richardson

The Titans allow only 182.2 passing yards per game, and Richardson has just one 200-yard passing performance in his last eight games. Take a look at his under passing yards. 

Prediction: Titans 23, Colts 21

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

Sunday, Dec. 22, 1 p.m., FOX
Spread: Cardinals -4.5
Total: 46.5

Well, we learned last week the Panthers are ready to be favorites just yet. Carolina was favored for the first time in two years, but it got smacked around in a 30-14 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. The Panthers are back to where they belong as underdogs this week. 

The Cardinals picked up a decisive win against the New England Patriots last week to keep pace in the NFC West. Arizona is only one game back of the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks with a crucial matchup against LA on deck. This is a must-win if the Cards want to take the division.

Mismatch to exploit: James Conner vs. Panthers run defense

The Panthers have given up 218.7 rushing yards per game over their last three, while Conner is coming off his best rushing game since Week 2. Check out his over rushing yards.

Prediction: Cardinals 26, Panthers 24

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders

Sunday, Dec. 22, 1 p.m., FOX
Spread: Eagles -3.5
Total: 45.5

After a sleepy performance against the Panthers, the Eagles got back on track with a dominant victory against the Steelers last week. Jalen Hurts was lights out with 290 passing yards and three total touchdowns, proving Philadelphia can beat you in multiple ways.

On the other side, the Commanders haven't looked impressive for two straight months. Washington nearly lost to Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler last week, so it needs a much better all-around performance to hang with an Eagles team riding a 10-game winning streak.

Mismatch to exploit: Saquon Barkley vs. Commanders run defense

Barkley needs 418 more rushing yards to break Eric Dickerson's single-season record, so the Eagles will look to feed him against a Washington defense that ranks 28th in yards per rush allowed (4.8).

Prediction: Eagles 27, Commanders 20

Los Angeles Rams @ New York Jets

Sunday, Dec. 22, 1 p.m., CBS
Spread: Rams -3.5
Total: 46

It was an interesting strategy for Aaron Rodgers to wait until the Jets were eliminated from the playoffs to start playing his best football in New York. The veteran has thrown for 628 yards and four touchdowns over the last two weeks. The issue has been New York's defense, which has given up 28.4 points per game over its last five.

The Rams are rolling east with confidence after back-to-back wins against the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers. Los Angeles scored 44 points in one and 12 in the other, showing the rest of the league it can win both shootouts and rock fights. 

Mismatch to exploit: Puka Nacua vs. Jets secondary

The Jets have given up monster games to Tyreek Hill and Brian Thomas Jr. in their last two games. Nacua has recorded at least 97 receiving yards in five of his last six, so check out his over on yards.

Prediction: Rams 29, Jets 27

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

Sunday, Dec. 22, 1 p.m., FOX
Spread: Lions -6.5
Total: 48

The injury bug has come for the Lions hard. Detroit has a whopping 15 defensive players on injured reserve, and now running back David Montgomery might be out for the season. After giving up 48 points and 8.2 yards per play to the Bills, the banged-up Lions will be happy to see Caleb Williams and this anemic Bears offense.

The last time Williams saw this Lions defense, though, he threw for 256 yards and three touchdowns and nearly pulled off the upset. He might be in trouble this week with three starting offensive linemen listed as questionable. 

Mismatch to exploit: D.J. Moore vs. Lions secondary

Moore went for 97 yards and a touchdown in his first game against the Lions, and now Detroit's secondary is even more beat up. Check out his receiving yards over.

Prediction: Lions 28, Bears 24

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, Dec. 22, 4:05 p.m., FOX
Spread: Vikings -3
Total: 42.5

The Vikings seem to be flying under the radar as Super Bowl contenders. All they've done is win seven straight games and score at least 30 points in three of their last four. If Sam Darnold protects the ball, this is a dangerous team.

Minnesota has the advantage in this matchup against a banged-up Seahawks clinging to first place in the NFC West. Geno Smith should. be good to go after leaving last week's game early with an injury, but Kenneth Walker, Zach Charbonnet, DK Metcalf, and Ernest Jones IV are all listed as questionable. 

Mismatch to exploit: Vikings defense vs. Geno Smith

The Vikings love to blitz, so they're going to come after Smith and test that injured knee. Take a look at Sith's passing yards under with so many offensive weapons nursing injuries.

Prediction: Vikings 23, Seahawks 20

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

Sunday, Dec. 22, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Spread: Bills -14.5
Total: 46.5

We're running out of words to describe Josh Allen. The prohibitive MVP favorite has put up 854 yards of offense and 10 touchdowns over his last two starts. Nothing can stop Allen right now, especially not a Patriots defense that ranks 23rd in points allowed per game (24.1) and 24th in yards allowed per pass (7.4).

The only positive for New England this season has been Drake Maye, who's completed more than 80 percent of his pass attempts in back-to-back games. Buffalo's defense has been gashed of late, so we could see another semi-shootout here.

Mismatch to exploit: Bills offense vs. Patriots defense

The Bills have scored at least 30 points in eight straight games, and the Patriots don't have any answers for Allen. Check out Buffalo's team total over.

Prediction: Bills 38, Patriots 20

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, Dec. 22, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Spread: Raiders -1
Total: 39.5

Unless you're a full-blown masochist, there's no reason to watch this travesty of a game. At least Mac Jones showed some signs of life last week with 294 yards and two touchdown passes against the Jets, but he's thrown multiple interceptions in three of his last five games.

Thankfully, Aidan O'Connell will be back under center after Desmond Ridder's abysmal performance against the Falcons, but it's hard to find anything intriguing about this game besides draft order.

Mismatch to exploit: Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Raiders secondary

Jones is starting to feed Thomas down the field, and he will again versus a banged-up Raiders secondary.

Prediction: Raiders 19, Jaguars 16

San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins

Sunday, Dec. 22, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Spread: Dolphins -1.5
Total: 44.5

The NFL likely thought this was going to be a critical late-season matchup with huge ratings upside, but the 49ers and Dolphins aren't the teams we expected heading into the season. The loser of this game will have a less than 1 percent chance of making the playoffs, but the winner won't have much of a chance, either.

San Francisco's season is so in the dumps the team had to suspend linebacker De'Vondre Campbell for refusing to play last weekend. This group could be on quit watch with three weeks remaining and nothing to play for.

Mismatch to exploit: 49ers run defense vs. De'Von Achane

Miami's running game is broken right now, as Achane is averaging just 27.8 rushing yards per game over his last four.

Prediction: Dolphins 24, 49ers 21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, Dec. 22, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Spread: Buccaneers -4
Total: 48.5

The Buccaneers have won four straight games to take control of the NFC South, with the offense averaging 31.0 points per game in that span. Baker Mayfield is balling with a healthy Mike Evans in the lineup, and this running game with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White is one of the best in the league. 

The Cowboys are coming off an encouraging performance against the Panthers in which Cooper Rush threw three touchdown passes and the defense recorded six sacks and four turnovers. Rico Dowdle is also coming on strong with 392 rushing yards over his last three games. This is a dangerous spoiler team down the stretch.

Mismatch to exploit: Buccaneers run defense vs. Rico Dowdle

Dowdle's rushing yards prop will be high after three straight 100-yard games, but the Bucs have surrendered only 68.0 rushing yards per game during their four-game winning streak.

Prediction: Cowboys 30, Buccaneers 27

New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers

Monday, Dec. 23, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Spread: Packers -14.5
Total: 42

Monday Night Football is normally one of the best games of the week, but that's not the case here. The Packers are on a roll and coming off a dominant win against the Seahawks, while the Saints will be without Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara and their two best wide receivers. It'll be Spencer Rattler under center and Kendre Miller leading the backfield.

Another factor for this game is the weather, as Green Bay might get hit by a snowstorm on Monday. 

Mismatch to exploit: Packers defense vs. Saints offense

The banged-up Saints offense is in trouble against Green Bay's havoc-creating defense. Check out some sack and interception props.

Prediction: Packers 26, Saints 10