NFL Wild Card Weekend: Raiders vs. Bengals prop bets

We stick with the plus-money receptions prop in this one with Zay Jones. Jones has seemingly become the Raiders' top receiver in terms of snaps and targets, volume I covet in a player prop.

Speaking of volume, there's an intersection that suggests plenty of Las Vegas passes are coming. The Raiders averaged the seventh-most pass attempts this season, while the Bengals see the fourth-most passes against them.

To me, that shows two tendencies I want to follow. Cincinnati's secondary isn't graded out particularly well, ranking 24th in DVOA.

Derek Carr and this offense should be slinging it, which is why I want a piece of the offense.

So, back to Jones. Jones has five-plus catches in five straight games and six of his last seven. So why are we getting this bet at +112?

My hunch is that it's because the return of Darren Waller is expected to siphon off targets from the other Raiders weapons, which is fair. 

However, in the past two games Waller has played (including last week), Jones has seen target totals of seven and eight.

His role doesn't seem to diminish with Waller on the field, and if anything, the star tight end's presence might attract more attention, leaving the field open for Jones to capitalize.

Averaging 8.4 targets per game in his last five, I like Jones to continue seeing the work to hit this 4.5 receptions line. Cincinnati allows the 12th-most receptions per game to WRs.