What are the Minnesota Vikings' current playoff odds?

With three weeks left in the regular season, here's how three different analytical models view the Vikings' playoff odds:

Reach postseason

• DVOA: 55 percent
• NYT Upshot: 55 percent
• ESPN FPI: 44.3 percent

Win division:

• DVOA: 6.6 percent
• ESPN FPI: 4.5 percent
• NYT Upshot: 3 percent

DVOA has the Vikings as the 15th-best team in the NFL and the Packers at 21st, whereas ESPN has the Packers at 15th and the Vikings at 20th, so that might explain some of the difference in their playoff odds.

NFC Playoff Picture, Standings Update: Wild Card Race Tightening

In the NFC North race, the only way the Vikings win it is if they win out (vs. Lions, vs. Packers, at Lions) and Detroit also loses in Dallas in Week 17. Given that the Lions at 10-4, that's rather unlikely, which the percentages reflect.

As far as simply making the playoffs, the Vikings will have to hold off a host of other 7-7 and 6-8 teams to secure either the sixth or seventh seed. If they can win two of their final three games, they should be in. If they only win one of the last three, they're going to need some help. There are scenarios where the Vikings could get in at 8-9, but getting to 9-8 would make it a much safer bet.

That's why this weekend's game against the Lions is so big. If the Vikings lose, they'll likely have to find a way to win their last two in order to sneak into the dance.