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Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche (Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)

Avalanche Close to Clinching Spot in 2025 NHL Playoffs

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Marko Zlomislic | Last updated Apr 1, 2025 10:55 AM ET

The Colorado Avalanche have been one of the NHL’s hottest teams since the trade deadline, going 8-2-2 in 12 games with the third-highest points percentage (PTS%) in the league over that time (.750). Yet, their recent hot run of form extends even further back than the deadline.

The Avalanche have gone 15-5-2 in their last 22 games and own the fifth-highest PTS% (.727) since the start of February. Their great string of results in that timespan is primarily a byproduct of an impenetrable defense (first in goals against per game) and a lethal power play (first with a 37.5% conversion rate).

What is more impressive is that the team is making its own luck, ranking seventh or better in terms of their share of shots (54.7%), expected goals (54.1%), scoring chances (55.7%), and high-danger opportunities (53.9%) at five-on-five over the past two months.

The Avalanche are firing on all cylinders at the right time of year, and look poised to do serious damage in the 2025 NHL Playoffs. Their spot is not quite clinched, however, and there is still some work to be done before Nathan MacKinnon and company can be penciled into the Western Conference playoff bracket.

Avalanche Nearing Magic Playoff Number

With less than a month to go on the NHL’s regular-season schedule, every team in the playoff hunt is keeping an eye on its magic number. This number is simply the number of points a team must earn to clinch a playoff spot and takes into account the rest of the conference playoff field.

The Avalanche currently own a record of 45-26-4 in 75 games and their point tally (94) offers a baseline with which to evaluate the remaining playoff hopefuls. They hold a six-point lead on the Minnesota Wild (88 in 75 games) and the St. Louis Blues (87 in 75 games) – holders of the two wildcard berths – for the third and final automatic playoff slot in the Central Division.

Looking at the rest of the Western wildcard race, the Vancouver Canucks, Calgary Flames, Utah Hockey Club, and Anaheim Ducks remain in the hunt. It should be noted that only the first three can leapfrog the Avalanche given their current point totals and total games remaining as of April 1.

Team	Games Left	Max Point Total
Wild (WC)	7	102
Blues (WC)	7	101
Flames	9	100
Canucks	8	97
Hockey Club	8	94
Ducks	9	90

With the Flames, the team just outside the playoff line, Colorado’s magic number for the playoffs is set at 100 points. Even if Calgary wins all of their nine remaining games, they cannot catch the Avalanche in total wins, regulation wins, or regulation plus shootout wins, so Colorado would hold all the relevant tiebreakers in case they both finished even in points.

Getting to either 103 points and/or earning three more wins in regulation would make it impossible for either the Wild or Blues to catch the Avalanche for a divisional spot. Those numbers also get smaller with every dropped point or non-regulation win by the teams chasing them at the moment.

None of the other remaining teams currently outside the Western Conference playoff picture can even hit 98 points, so with all the tiebreakers in hand, getting to 97 points would ensure that the Avalanche would at least finish ahead of each of those three teams. The Avalanche face a manageable schedule down the stretch (including games against the Canucks and Ducks), so it would take a catastrophic turn of events for them to miss the playoffs at this rate.

Home-Ice Advantage in First Round Almost Out of Reach

For all of their recent success, the Avalanche will likely start the first round on the road. Extending the franchise’s playoff streak to eight consecutive seasons would be a nice accomplishment (second only to the Toronto Maple Leafs among active streaks), but missing out on home-ice advantage in the first round stings given the strength of the Western Conference.

The Winnipeg Jets are four points clear of the Dallas Stars for first in the Central and 12 points clear of the Avalanche, who sit third. While the Stars have an outside chance of winning the division (one game in hand on the Jets), they are eight points clear of Colorado with a game in hand and will almost certainly finish either first or second, barring an epic collapse.

The Jets are staring down a tough schedule down the stretch with three of their final eight games coming against the top three teams in the Pacific Division, as well as a final tune-up against the Stars on April 10.

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On the other hand, the Stars have a relative cakewalk before the postseason, with six of their final eight games coming against non-playoff teams. The game against the Jets could potentially decide the division and determine which team is gifted an Avalanche team gathering steam in Round 1.

The Avalanche will be the underdog regardless of their eventual opponent. They will only see home-ice advantage if a wildcard team engineers an upset over the Jets or Stars, and even then, they must win their own first-round series before advancing to a softer second-round tilt.

Avalanche Gearing Up for Tough First-Round Playoff Series

Despite a nervy start to the season with only six wins in their first 14 games, the Avalanche have fashioned themselves into a burgeoning Stanley Cup contender. The team’s overall PTS% for the season (.627) puts them seventh in the league and fourth in the West, quite the accomplishment after navigating several key injuries and league-worst goaltending for a third of the campaign.

In a cruel twist of fate, Colorado’s reward for a remarkable in-season turnaround may be a first-round showdown with one of the Jets or the Stars, who sit first and third in the league respectively. There are no easy outs in the playoffs, but the NHL’s flawed postseason format doesn’t reward good teams, and the Avalanche should feel slighted by the setup. Can they overcome the odds and bring a fourth Stanley Cup to Denver?

Data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and the NHL.