Cassidy Changes Bring Immediate Results

The Vegas Golden Knights have left one defensive pair together for most of the season. In early November, Bruce Cassidy moved Shea Theodore from the left side to the right, splitting up Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo. Since then, Theodore has played with both Brayden McNabb and Zach Whitecloud; Pietrangelo, however, found himself a steady partner in Noah Hanifin.

There’s a reason that Cassidy kept Hanifin and Pietrangelo together. From November 1st to January 8th, Hanifin and Pietrangelo played 469:09 together and were on ice for just 18 goals against, per NaturalStatTrick.

Since January 9th, however, when this stretch of bad play started, their results have been less than ideal. The Hanifin-Pietrangelo pairing played 209:11 together at even strength, and their goalshare isn’t pretty. They’ve been on for just three goals for and 15 goals against.

Of course, it doesn’t help that Pietrangelo and Hanifin are both badly losing the turnover battle. In 50 games this season, Pietrangelo has 70 giveaways against 17 takeaways. His previous career high in giveaways was 46 through 73 games in 2022-23. In 53 games, Hanifin has 72 giveaways and 21 takeaways.

Here’s where it gets interesting. Despite being 35 and playing through an injury that required him to withdraw from the 4 Nations Face-Off Tournament, Alex Pietrangelo’s defensive analytics haven’t regressed. In fact, they’ve improved from last season. 

The same cannot be said for Noah Hanifin, who just turned 28 and is inexplicably regressing. It’s not just that his analytics are bad– you can’t place all of your trust in something that prioritizes the process over results– it’s that the numbers pass the eye test.

Head coach Bruce Cassidy finally separated Hanifin and Pietrangelo last night against the New York Rangers, and the decision to do so was not unfounded. Pietrangelo is injured, and I can’t help but wonder if Hanifin is, too. Top-4 defensemen don’t usually regress like this year-to-year, not when they didn’t change teams, not at age 28. 

Pairing Adjustment and Results

Bruce Cassidy paired Alex Pietrangelo with Nic Hague, and Noah Hanifin played with Zach Whitecloud. From an analytics standpoint, these 5-on-5 pairings were just what the doctor ordered.

First, for reference, let’s look at the 5-on-5 numbers from MoneyPuck.com for the Hanifin-Pietrangelo pairing. 

Last Tuesday against the Dallas Stars, the Hanifin-Pietrangelo pairing was on ice for two 5-on-5 goals against, with .787 expected goals against. On January 26th against the Florida Panthers, they were on ice for no 5-on-5 goals against but 1.389 expected goals against. On January 24th against the Stars, the pairing was on ice for one 5-on-5 goal against and .773 expected goals against.

Let’s compare that to last night’s new pairings against the New York Rangers. Noah Hanifin and Zach Whitecloud played 13:15 together at 5-on-5 and didn’t give up a goal. They were on ice for .233 expected goals against. Nic Hague and Alex Pietrangelo played 14:47 together at 5-on-5 and conceded one goal, but only .192 expected goals against.

What the Numbers Mean

If you don’t understand what those numbers mean, to put it in simple hockey terms, the new pairings didn’t get shelled. Hanifin-Whitecloud allowed just eight shot attempts, and only four were on goal. Hague-Pietrangelo allowed nine shot attempts against, but only four of those were on goal.

I’m not saying these new pairings are the answer, not after one game; it’s too small of a sample size. Nonetheless, the analytical results from Cassidy’s defenseman swap were promising, and they passed the eye test.

The Rangers are undeniably underperforming this season. They’re five points out of a playoff spot and 6th in the Metropolitan Division. However, the Rangers typically don’t struggle to score or generate chances at 5-on-5. Last night, they did.

The Rangers simply capitalized on the looks they were given.

There are quite a few problems with this Golden Knights team right now. They’re struggling to finish. The penalty kill is abysmal, and goaltending is consistently letting them down. But the Golden Knights conceded 26 goals at 5-on-5– the 5th most in the league– from January 9th-30th.

If last night was any indication, these new defensive pairings might help turn that around.