Devils’ Overconfidence in Offense Coming Back to Bite Them

So, what was the so-called depth that the Devils felt so comfortable about?

“A guy like Dawson Mercer is going to get an opportunity to continue to grow and explode, hopefully,” Fitzgerald said in July. “And then it’s by committee. You’re hoping that the Tatar’s and the Cotter’s and the Noesen’s are all chipping in and in that 15-goal [range] to make up the goal difference. But at the end of the day, Jack, Nico, Timo, Bratt, more from Palat offensively. We feel we’ll continue to get that.”

Needless to say, they did not continue to get enough. One would have to wonder if the Devils placed too much of an emphasis on physicality. Rather than filling the Toffoli-sized hole with a Toffoli-like talent, they immediately opted for middle-to-bottom-six guys known to have a physical edge. They then signed enforcer Kurtis MacDermid to a three-year deal, and for good measure, had an entire draft where they almost exclusively focused on size.

In the summer, Fitzgerald said, “Cap space wise, we feel like we are in a good place, where we can stay flexible if something were to come down the road for us and to be able to trade some assets and draft capital. We feel lucky and fortunate that if something were to come along, we can be in that game.”

But even though the issue was obvious months ago, no move has been made, opting for the season to continue to play out. Now, with limited cap space and a clear seller’s market, making a sizable addition to the top six won’t come without a hefty price. Not only that, but the playoffs aren’t even a complete lock at this point, especially with the recent Hughes injury. (MoneyPuck gives them a 90.9% chance.)

Finishing Issues

Even if the Devils had a Toffoli or a similar-type talent this whole time, that still wouldn’t excuse the lack of depth scoring. They’ve scored 24.3 goals below expected this season. But it’s much easier to land bottom-six skill players at the deadline compared to elite, goal scoring wingers. Now, they seem a bit handcuffed, as the lineup desperately needs both.

Out of 28 players to take the ice for the Devils this season, just five have finished better than expected: J. Hughes (+3.89), Seamus Casey (+3.60), Paul Cotter (+2.62), Ondrej Palat (+2.37) and Nico Hischier (+1.26). For context, the Devils’ horrendous goaltending in 2023-24 stopped 17.3 goals below expected, meaning the finishing issue has hurt the team ~29% more than the goaltending issue ever did. Now, it’s easy to say “Well, it’s not Fitzgerald’s fault they aren’t finishing their chances!!”

But there’s a human element to the game. As the depth players have contributed less and less, the finishing issues have been exacerbated. The eye test has shown countless times that top guys turn the puck over while trying to do too much. They aren’t naive; at least deep down, they know that if they don’t get the job done, not many others often will.

In January, The Hockey Writers asked head coach Sheldon Keefe if he felt the lack of depth scoring was causing top guys to grip their sticks too tight. “That’s a bullsh– excuse,” he responded.

But the numbers have backed it up through time, as the Devils’ goal scoring has diminished each month: 50 in October, 44 in November, 38 in December, 32 in January and 18 in February (granted, 4 Nations break). The point production rates of Bratt, J. Hughes, Hischier and Timo Meier have all declined after the New Year. 

To be fair, it’s understandable why Keefe was so quick to write the notion off. A coach is only as good as their players. Throwing the struggling players under the bus when they’re clearly working hard won’t solve anything. Keefe was never given a true championship-caliber lineup.

What Do They Do Now!?

With J. Hughes injured and no update yet, the Devils have created quite the predicament for themselves. If he’s going to be out long term and potentially miss the playoffs, it may not even make sense to go add a rental. They would be better suited to add someone who can become a part of their future plans (ex. trade for and extend Ryan Donato)

If the Devils get better news on that front, it’s up to Fitzgerald to decide how much of the future he wants to risk to go all-in this season. Last season, Fitzgerald opted to hold back on going all-in to prioritize going for it this season. If he holds back again, it will be the second season in a row that the prime years of his star players are wasted. 

While a player the caliber of Hughes can’t really be replaced, a strong team would tread water regardless. The Devils, as currently constructed, could potentially face a catastrophic collapse without their leading scorer. These next few days will be very interesting…