Edmonton Oilers Playoff Thoughts: Round 1, Game 2

It’s easier to have a more rational take a day or two after that kind of game happens. They very nearly pulled off the Miracle on Manchester in reverse.

In Round 2 of 2022, the Oilers blew a 3-0 lead in Game 4, but Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored the game-winning goal late and won the series in 5 games. Game 1 of that series was similar to Monday night. In Round 1 of 2023, the Oilers went down 3-0 in Game 4 but came back and won in Overtime, along with the series in 6 games. In Round 2 of 2024, the Oilers blew a 4-1 lead in Game 1 but still won the series in 7 games. The up-and-down like a toilet seat affirmation is still alive and well, but we’re not dead yet. 

At the very end of the third period, going down 4-0 no longer mattered. Going down 5-2 no longer matters. Allowing goals that you’d have rather seen a save on no longer mattered. Giveaways made around the net no longer mattered. Taking a puck over glass penalty when the puck actually hit the glass on a closer look no longer mattered. Giving the Kings a two-minute 5v3 powerplay due to a failed coach’s challenge on the puck over the glass penalty no longer mattered. What mattered was that the Oilers found an inconceivable, but historically not impossible, way to claw back and tie the game with less than 2 minutes left, only to have their hearts broken less than a minute later. I’ve written before that I have more reserved emotions in the first couple of games in any series. But how could you not slightly feel something in a roller coaster of a Game 1? And it’s only Round 1.

I know Stuart Skinner is once again the poster child for a loss, but I’m not condoning six goals on 30 shots. But on the winning goal, he had an upward avalanche covering his face, and Warren Foegele was screening him after jumping to help a knuckle puck get through. I didn’t like the second goal against, but we see Connor McDavid score 2 or 3 goals like that every year and never blame the other team’s goalie. He also made a great save in the second period with lateral movement from post to post, which is normally an issue for him. For a former champion having a good year, Darcy Kuemper looked ordinary to mediocre late in the game. He wasn’t that much better than Skinner, statistically speaking. When Connor McDavid and Kris Knoblauch were asked about goaltending, it sounded like reporters were trying to make them call out their own goalie. Of course, they wouldn’t, but I liked their answers, not throwing a teammate under the bus.  

I pointed out in my article before Game 1 that LA has a better chance to beat Edmonton this year than they did the previous three years. But after Game 1, scoring five goals against a stellar defensive team on the road, and remember the Kings are the best home team this year,  I’m actually feeling more confident that the Oilers can pull off a 4th straight first round win against the Kings. But hockey isn’t played on feelings, it’s played on the ice. We need to see them build confidence off of that game. Bob Stauffer tweeted interesting Playoff stats about the Oilers yesterday. In the last four postseasons, they’re 10-18 (.357) from Game 1 to Game 3. They’re 19-7 (.730) from Game 4 to Game 7. Monday night wasn’t this team’s first comeback rodeo, they love playing through adversity. I’d argue they love it a little too much, but they don’t get rattled when the going gets tough. It’s the sort of group that, for whatever reason, they just thrive on facing that much pressure. We’ve seen examples of it time and time again. They’ll look to split the series coming back to Rogers Place. The keys to the game are…

Shift Balance: McDavid and Leon Draisaitl might’ve stayed on the ice, tying the game on Monday, because of the extra adrenaline they got. But they were dead tired from the extended shifts at the end of the game. Draisaitl couldn’t backcheck hard enough on Phillip Danault before the 6-5 goal was scored. Instead of trying to force the win in regulation, I’d have just let the game go to Overtime with everybody in the home rink nervous. The Oilers got a goal from Mattias Janmark of all people, and Jeff Skinner got an assist for his Playoff point in his first Playoff game. There’s nothing wrong with giving other players a chance to contribute when you’re not as desperate anymore.

Discipline: Some people were saying that Danault embellished when Jake Walman did a cross-check towards him. It was still a bad and needless penalty to take when his team was getting momentum back. Play with emotion, don’t be emotional. I brought up the puck over glass predicament earlier, but it also looked like Walman had more time to shoot the puck flat down center ice rather than try to flip it out. 

If He’s Back…: Evander Kane could be ready to go for Game 2 tonight. If he is, it’s hard to imagine the offense will be there right away after all the time he’s missed. If he can throw a hit or two and swear at some players, I’ll be happy. His swagger has been missed all season long. Unless the NHL forbids him from playing again while giving LTIR players on other teams a chance to play. When we said the league would start caring about that loophole when a Canadian team did it, it wasn’t a joke; we were right. I’m just saying.