Evaluating The Canadiens’ Recent Surge and Playoff Odds

The first thing that comes to mind when analyzing the results is that October was indeed a tire fire, and that the concerns about the team’s play were clearly justified.

While most people will point to December or January as the best months of the season, I’d argue November was much better from a process standpoint. The results weren’t quite there since they only controlled a little over 44 percent of the goals, but the Canadiens were on the upswing thanks to a few strong games in which they actually managed to control the high-danger scoring chances, a rarity for this team.

December is an interesting month, because the results were essentially the opposite of November. The Habs struggled to control shots, scoring chances, and expected goals, yet they did control over 50 percent of the goals.

And finally, with Alexandre Carrier in the mix, January is the team’s best month from a shot control perspective, though there’s room for improvement left when it comes to the Canadiens’ share of high-danger chances, as per tradition.

Montreal Canadiens Playoff Odds

So, if the Canadiens are playing much better, and are close to the final Wild Card spot, why do most outlets have them on the outside looking in when it comes to their playoff odds?

First off, the Habs went from negligible odds to 20 percent, which is a gigantic improvement. But when we say “they’re playing much better”, we also have to consider the entire season when discussing playoff odds.

As you can see in the chart below, despite improving in a few key areas, Montreal still ranks among the bottom-10 in the league in key stats, which is holding them back. And the changes from year to year, while somewhat encouraging, aren’t good enough to suggest the uptick in results is sustainable. Their inability to control high-danger chances, in particular, is a stain that will be very difficult to remove for head coach Martin St-Louis.

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

All things considered, I’d argue the Canadiens are in the midst of taking that famous ‘next step’, but they haven’t quite turned the corner yet. That will take some time, especially when it comes to controlling the best scoring chances on most nights.

That being said, if they maintain their current level of play, their underlying numbers will improve, and consequently, so will their playoff odds, but for now, it’s probably best to temper all expectations as to the playoffs, and enjoy watching a team that’s starting to figure out how to put things together.

Simply put, there’s still a lot of work left to do before we can really start to get excited about the Habs participating in springtime hockey, but they are on the right track.

After all, rebuilds are a marathon, not a sprint.

All Montreal Canadiens Statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.