How Defenceman Jayden Struble Can Help The Canadiens Win

The Montreal Canadiens decided to send 23-year-old defenceman Jayden Struble to the Laval Rocket, a conditioning stint that allows him to spend 14 days in the AHL.

While in Laval, Struble will still receive NHL pay, his salary will continue to impact the Canadiens’ salary cap, and the assignment does not change the fact that he counts against the 23-player roster limit.

The intent behind the assignment is unclear, though it could serve a few purposes. If the Canadiens are working on a trade to move David Savard, getting Struble back up to game speed is an important step. After all, you can’t expect a young defenceman to immediately find his rhythm after spending a significant stretch in the press box.

The AHL assignment will also allow scouts from various teams observe Struble in action while being given heavy minutes, and will bolster the Rocket’s blue line, albeit temporarily.

Finding A Job In Montreal

Much like Arber Xhekaj in previous stretches, Jayden Struble has been relegated to an auxiliary defenceman due to the perception that the good does not outweigh the bad when he’s on the ice.

And while I’ll readily admit Struble did not particularly look great during his sporadic usage by the Habs this year, we have to remember our eyes are dirty liars.

Okay, to be more accurate, there’s too much information to process while watching a hockey game, which is why our brains use shortcuts. Think of it this way, how many events take place between whistles? We’re talking about a handful of hits, dozens of passes, and many shots, not to mention other key plays, such as controlled exits and board battles, among others.

One night could include many hundreds, if not thousands of micro-events that combine to produce a single hockey game.

To compensate for the information overload, our brains delve into cognitive bias that’s called ‘availability heuristic’.

“The availability heuristic occurs when we judge the likelihood of an event based on how easily we can recall similar events. If we can vividly remember instances of that event, we deem it to be more common than it actually is.”

For example, it’s very easy to remember every time a bad defensive read leads to a goal against, but we probably won’t remember much if the play does not result in the puck ending up in the back of the net.

That’s why I will go out of my way to defend the players who perhaps aren’t being analyzed properly due to the perception that they’re a negative-impact player. I’m not addicted to defending the underdog, as some have suggested, I’m just duty-bound to present factual information whenever an opinion-based narrative takes over. In that sense, it’s the players who are providing me with all the ammo necessary to properly evaluate the situation.

It was certainly the case for Xhekaj in the past, and it has also surfaced while discussing Struble’s results this season.

Simply put, things aren’t as bad as many have suggested.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

To get a better idea of how Struble has played this year without relying on mental shortcuts, we can take a look at his results with Savard and Xhekaj.

It’s quite clear that Struble has produced much better underlying numbers alongside Xhekaj, compared to his time with Savard. Their share of shots (CF%) is significantly better, as is their expected goals (xGF%). Their high-danger scoring chances are slightly lower, but not enough to compensate for other discrepancies.