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Brayden Point, Tampa Bay Lightning (Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)

Lightning Fans Shouldn’t Worry About Brayden Point

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Jack Pallotta | Last updated Mar 25, 2025 9:35 AM ET

Brayden Point set a career-high in goals and points during the 2022-23 season, where he notched 51 goals and 95 points in 82 games for the Tampa Bay Lightning. After some underwhelming regular season production from 2020-22, many believed Point had peaked in 2018-19 when he scored 41 goals and 92 points at 23 years old. However, this 50-goal campaign proved the superstar had a new level to his game. The center followed up his career-best season with 46 goals and 90 points in 81 games in 2023-24 and planned to contribute big again for the Lightning this season.

Before I dive into some underlying metrics, I don’t think Point has had a bad season. He’s scored 34 goals and 68 points in 65 games thus far, on pace for roughly 80 points across 77 games. While the production has taken a slight hit, that’s not the central argument for this article. I want to pay closer attention to Point’s five-on-five and defensive impact, as I believe his overall value has declined in 2024-25. What proof do public statistics provide for such a statement?

Point’s Decline In Five-On-Five Production

Tampa Bay’s first-line center ranked fourth in five-on-five goals two seasons ago with 29, just five behind David Pastrnak for the league lead. Point also provided a passing element to the Lightning’s first line with 30 five-on-five assists. With goals and assists combined, Point finished fourth in five-on-five scoring in 2022-23. Fast-forward to last season, where Point ranked top five in five-on-five goals for the second consecutive season with 28, but ten shy of the league leader in Auston Matthews. Moreover, he finished just outside the top ten in five-on-five points, but overall, it was a very productive season.

Looking at the 2024-25 season, Point ranks tied for 34th in five-on-five goals with 16 in 65 games. Players like Ryan Donato and Morgan Geekie have scored more goals at five-on-five this season. That’s not a knock on two players having phenomenal seasons, but it speaks volumes about the decline in Point’s five-on-five goal scoring. He barely cracked the top 40 five-on-five point scorers this season, and this decline in production is the first reason I believe his overall impact has diminished.

Point’s Horrific Defensive Efforts

Yes, the five-on-five production has at least been passable and top 50 amongst skaters this season, but Point’s impact on the defensive side of the puck can’t be ignored. The Lightning have dressed 19 skaters for at least 500 minutes this season at five-on-five (12 forwards and seven defensemen), and Point doesn’t grade well in a single on-ice defensive metric. Amongst those 19 skaters, Point ranks last in fewest on-ice Corsi against per 60 (CA/60) at five-on-five via Natural Stat Trick. Furthermore, he is surrendering quality chances when he’s on the ice as well. He grades 18th on the Lightning in fewest expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60), only ahead of Mitchell Chaffee.

Point is doing this all while getting a 92.28% on-ice save percentage from his goaltenders, which indicates this isn’t due to unlucky netminding when he’s on the ice. The rest of the Lightning’s top six forwards see their expected goals against per 60 improve when they aren’t on the ice with Point. It’s almost as if he has been an anchor for the Lightning at five-on-five this season due to his poor defensive play, similar to Steven Stamkos last season.

Closing Thoughts: Point Remains a Star In This League

Despite his five-on-five struggles, don’t rule out Point as one of the league’s most exciting stars to watch. I don’t think he isn’t a first-line forward or valuable player anymore. The purpose of this article was to highlight some of his five-on-five decay relative to the standard of elite play he’s established in the past two seasons. Instead, I anticipate he will shine where the spotlight is brightest in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Lightning must rely on him as their top-line center to eat a ton of minutes and bring his fast-paced, energetic play-style to an environment where the intensity and physicality ramp up. On the other hand, don’t be surprised if these inefficiencies in his game this season come back to bite the Lightning in a playoff series.