NHL Saturday bets: Goal-scorer parlay

The hunt for a winning goal-scorer parlay continues. Friday, we nailed one and picked the right games but the wrong guys for the rest.

Saturday, we aim to bring it all together. We're bumping up the parlay to four legs, which feels counter-intuitive, but as I will get to in a minute, all of the spots look great for scoring.

At time of publish, these odds are +3575 on FanDuel. FD has significantly better odds than DraftKings, so if you can, that would be the place to load it up.

Josh Norris

We start in the afternoon game between Ottawa and Arizona, one that sticks out to me for potential goals.

The game popped up as an example of positive regression due for both teams. I've started mentioning it more, but when you look at expected goals for and expected goals against, both of these teams are due for more scoring and more goals allowed.

These are also two teams that see a ton of shots against them and both struggle on the penalty kill.

It's that last nugget that brought me to Josh Norris. When looking at shots allowed/game on the penalty kill, Arizona tops the league.

This is Norris's second game back from injury, but prior to his absence, he was one of the top power play shooters in the NHL. Now reacclimated to the ice and reestablishing his role, I could see Norris getting plenty of chances today.

Norris has a goal in 45% of away games this year, including six in his past ten. I love the value Norris brings to this lottery ticket in a game I think could get sloppy.

Best goal odds: +235 FD

Aleksander Barkov

If you're looking for one game to target for goal-scoring, I'd load up on a few Florida skaters.

In their past ten games, no team scores more at home than the Panthers at 4.9 goals per game. They get a Detroit team seeing 3.4 goals scored against them on the road in their past five on top of a plethora of shots.

Florida fires away at home, and after scoring just three times against Ottawa on Thursday despite 48 shots, I expect a positive regression to the mean in the goal-scoring department.

Barkov is my preferred choice. He's shot 22 times in his past two games, elite volume, and has 8 goals in his last 15 games.

He had two against Detroit earlier this season, and we bank on him repeating the effort today.

Best goal odds: +116 FD

Leon Draisaitl

Edmonton is rolling right now with the goal-scoring, though it's dipped a bit at home recently. They get a tremendous get-right opponent in Montreal, who is allowing 4.6 goals against in its past five road games.

When looking at expected goals for and expected goals against, these team's trends stay steady: Edmonton should score.

Montreal also averages the second-most ice time per game on the penalty kill, and Draisaitl has four power play goals in his past fifteen games.

When looking at shot volume, numbers suggest the Oilers dominate puck possession all game, and Draisaitl has been far more involved at home.

In his past eight home games, Draisaitl is averaging 7.4 shot attempts per game and has scored five goals.

Draisaitl also has three goals in his last two games against the Canadiens. Plenty to like here, so he's added to the parlay.

Best goal odds: +100 FD

Brad Marchand

Brad Marchand brings us great value in the last leg of the lotto, going against a Columbus team playing on a back-to-back.

No team is letting up more shots at home in their past ten games than the Blue Jackets, and their 4.0 goals allowed per game in the same span is fifth-most.

Marchand has been a massive jolt to Boston since his return. The Bruins are averaging 4.2 goals per game on the road in their past five, and Marchand is averaging 7.6 shot attempts per game in his five games back.

Despite this volume, he's scored in just one game, though he did net two in that one. Marchand hasn't found the back of the net very frequently recently, but with his rising shot volume, the goals are sure to come soon.

Tonight seems like a great opportunity to do so.

Best goal odds: +154 FD

Together, these four goal scorers gives us odds of +3575 on FanDuel. Feel free to consider these guys straight, or round robin. Let's get a win on this fine Saturday! Good luck.