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Matthew Knies, Toronto Maple Leafs (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

Predicting Matthew Knies’ Next Contract with the Maple Leafs

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Spencer Lazary | Last updated Feb 8, 2025 4:15 PM ET

The Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves in an interesting position this offseason. They have three massive contract negotiations with John Tavares, Mitch Marner, and Matthew Knies. Now, I’ve already done my predictions for both Marner and Tavares, so let’s turn our attention to the youngster, Knies.

Knies finds himself in a very special role—he gets to play alongside Auston Matthews and Marner almost on a nightly basis. Not only is that an honor and a privilege, but it’s also a role that he has fit nearly perfectly into. Knies brings a certain skill set, accompanied by his big body, that has worked very well with the two-star forwards. His ability to go to the net and tip pucks, go into the corner and dig for loose pucks—it is almost like Zach Hyman 2.0. He is the power forward that the Maple Leafs’ top line needed, and because of that, Knies is going to be walking into a nicely earned contract extension.

Knies’ New Deal

$16 Million/4 years ($4M AAV)

As mentioned before, Knies’ fit with the Maple Leafs’ top line has been nearly perfect. However, no NHL player gets paid based solely on fit. There needs to be a track record of point production to go along with it. While there is a small history of him scoring at the NHL level, he truly hasn’t had his breakout year until this season. That may bump up the AAV a bit but not by much. Additionally, with the salary cap projections rising, the Maple Leafs can afford to compensate him while also making this contract look like a steal in a handful of years.

In 113 NHL games, he has scored 36 goals and 36 assists for 72 points. His career high was 35 points before he broke that this season, and now it is 36 and ongoing. Even if he ends up with 45–50 points, he likely won’t get over $5 million. He just doesn’t have the past production to justify a larger contract. This is why GM Brad Treliving and the Maple Leafs should look at getting Knies to sign a bridge deal. It would be a win-win for both sides. For the Maple Leafs, they get a talented player with a ton of potential at a lower cost for roughly four years before having to pay him long-term. For Knies, he gets to maximize his earnings. After the bridge deal ends with Toronto, he can seek an extension that pays him more money and could even consider keeping the years around the 4-5 range to ensure he gets one more chance at signing a big-ticket contract.

$16 million over four years is a good deal for both sides. Knies’ new AAV would increase to $4.5 million, which would be affordable for the Maple Leafs while also giving them the chance to allocate salary to other areas. It also ensures that they don’t sign a long-term contract that doesn’t age well.

If we look at comparable contracts around the NHL, the one that stands out is Dawson Mercer of the New Jersey Devils. He signed for $12 million over three years ($4.0 million AAV). He is 23 years old, with a career-high of 56 points in 82 games, which came in 2022-23. The only difference is that Mercer has played an extra year at the NHL level. The career totals between him and Knies can’t be compared because Knies has played in 189 fewer NHL games. However, if his agent were to make an argument about point production, it would be that Knies would be on pace for 192 points if he had played the same number of games as Mercer, who has 155.

Only time will tell. With a lack of reports regarding Knies’ contract extension, this may be one that is pushed to the offseason. The good thing is, he will still be a restricted free agent, meaning the Maple Leafs will own his rights, so even if he were to be offer-sheeted, they would have seven days to match. Regardless, signing Knies—who could be an integral part of the team’s top line for the next four years—at an AAV of $4.5 million could eventually be considered one of the best value contracts in the NHL.