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Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning (Photo by Mike Carlson/NHLI via Getty Images)

Previewing & Predicting the Lightning’s 1st Round Series vs. Panthers

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Jack Pallotta | Last updated Apr 18, 2025 8:25 AM ET

For the second season in a row, the Tampa Bay Lightning will face off against the Florida Panthers in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Lightning enter the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs with a chip on their shoulder following their first-round loss to the Panthers in five games last season, who went on to win the Stanley Cup in June.

Tampa Bay made the necessary roster changes to improve their odds of defeating a juggernaut Florida roster that’s won seven playoff series in the past two seasons, but will those changes be enough to win a Round 1 matchup? In this article, I’ll review the keys to victory for the Lightning in their series against the Panthers, along with the X-Factors and my prediction.

Keys to Victory

Shutting Down the Panthers’ “Power Kill”

For head coach Paul Maurice, there’s no sitting back on the penalty kill. The Panthers rank second in shorthanded goals scored in the NHL and have terrorized the Lightning’s power play this season. While the Lightning’s power play has looked much different without Steven Stamkos on the top unit, the Panthers continue to disband one of the NHL’s best power-play units.

Sam Reinhart is second in shorthanded goals with five this season. Pair him with the reigning Frank J. Selke Trophy winner in Aleksander Barkov and the sneaky Gustav Forsling, and Tampa Bay will in trouble even when having the man advantage. The Lightning must prepare to play defense and hustle back on the power play when plays get broken up and the Panthers rush down the opposite end. Clean zone entries and crisp puck movement in the offensive zone will minimize the Panthers’ shorthanded capabilities.

Vasilevskiy Making the Perimeter Saves

The Panthers love to throw pucks on the net from low-danger areas, especially from the point where their defenders sit at the blue line. Florida ranks first in low-danger shots for per 60 (LDSF/60) at five-on-five as per Natural Stat Trick. Furthermore, the Lightning prefer not to block shots and surrender low-quality shots to exert more energy on offense. They rank 24th in shot blocks at five-on-five as per MoneyPuck. Tampa Bay prioritizes protecting the slot, not allowing teams to generate chances in tight.

With Andrei Vasilevskiy’s performance in high-danger areas this season, where he ranks second in high-danger save percentage (HDSV%) at five-on-five only behind the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Anthony Stolarz, the Lightning need him to stop the easy shots from the perimeter. Amongst 58 goaltenders with over 1,000 minutes played this season at five-on-five, Vasilevskiy’s average distance on goals against is the third furthest away from the net. To put this into perspective, the Dallas Stars’ starting goaltender, Jake Oettinger, average goal distance is 18.29 feet, while Vasilevskiy’s is 23.46 feet. That’s over a five-foot difference on all their goals against at five-on-five this season. In other words, the Lightning need Vasilevskiy to stop the low-danger shots the Panthers so frequently take.

Quick Transition From Defense to Offense

One area where the Panthers destroyed the Lightning in the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs was on the forecheck. The Lightning’s back end isn’t particularly fast, and their defense core ranks 22nd in speed bursts above 20 miles per hour (mph) per 60 as per NHL Edge. This lack of foot speed might come back to bite them against arguably the best forechecking team in the NHL. Florida is relentless and physical on the puck, and if the Lightning want to be effective through their counter-strike offensive strategy, the defensemen must be flawless on their retrievals and puck movement up the ice.

Some of the Lightning’s best puck-moving defensemen, including Victor Hedman and Nick Perbix, will play a vital role in the transition game. While these two defenders aren’t the fastest on the blue line, they are the most poised with the puck on their blades, always looking for the controlled exit as opposed to the “glass-and-out” approach. As long as their retrievals are clean and they don’t get burnt by Florida’s tenacity on the forecheck, Tampa Bay can catch their interstate opponent off guard with chances off defensive zone counters.

X-Factors

X-factors are players who, if they can perform at a high level in a potential playoff series, would be difference-makers in the outcome. Jake Guentzel is the first of two X-Factors for the Lightning in this series against the Panthers. Not only is Guentzel a perennial five-on-five performer, but he’s also a playoff warrior. He has a career 38 goals and 67 points in 69 playoff games and won the Stanley Cup with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2016-17. With this series being his introduction to playoff hockey in a Lightning sweater, keep an eye on how critical he will be for the Lightning’s success.

The second X-Factor for the Lightning is a rookie who was recently recalled from the Syracuse Crunch after cracking the lineup out of training camp. That’s 6-foot-4 Conor Geekie, who’s scored a couple of goals to close out the season and continues to thrive in an elevated role inOliver Bjorkstrand’s absence. With his shot power and physicality, the Lightning need their younger depth guys to step up and be an elite supporting cast when their top stars are being shut down by defensive specialists like Barkov and Reinhart.

Series Prediction

While both sides have a few injuries, the Panthers have the bigger blows with Matthew Tkachuk’s questionable status and Barkov’s late-season upper-body injury. Furthermore, Aaron Ekblad will miss the first two games of the series to finish serving his suspension. Meanwhile, the Lightning have some secondary pieces injured with Bjorkstrand listed as week-to-week and Darren Raddysh listed as day-to-day. The Panthers haven’t had an opportunity to play with their new squad fully healthy, with acquisitions Seth Jones and Brad Marchand being solid, but not fantastic fits thus far.

With that said, the Lightning’s five-on-five structure and defensive play have made leaps and bounds relative to last season, while the Panthers had to shed a lot of core pieces in the offseason. With the question marks surrounding the Panthers’ health, I predict the Lightning to win the series this time around, as long as they stick to the three keys to victory listed above and the X-Factors shine.

Prediction: Lightning win in 6 games