Ranking the Senators’ Potential First-Round Playoff Opponents

Putting the Tkachuk’s aside, you can really see a gap in terms of the depth on both squads. Dylan Cozens has been a great addition, and Tim Stützle is having the best season of his young career so far, but when you look at guys like Aleksander Barkov and Sam Bennett, the Panthers’ big boys appear to be a notch above the Sens. Bennett is an absolute pit bull who’s only upped his offensive production as his career has gone on, and it’s hard to imagine the inexperienced Sens would be ready to deal with Marchand as his tag team partner come playoff time. While the Sens do have veterans like former Panther Claude Giroux and David Perron, there’s only so much they can say to help prepare Ottawa for a matchup against the high-flying, hard-hitting defending champs.

Linus Ullmark would give the Sens a fighting chance, but judging by their last matchup where Florida pumped Ottawa 5-1 and peppered Ullmark with 47 shots, it might not make much of a difference. While this series would be extremely entertaining, it feels like the Sens would be outmatched and Florida would ultimately get past them in Round 1.

3. Tampa Bay Lightning: 2-1-0 Against Ottawa This Season

The Tampa Bay Lightning would present a well-balanced challenge for the Senators with their mix of offensive firepower, defensive structure, reliability in between the pipes, and overall championship pedigree. The Lightning rank second in the NHL in goals per game (3.51) and eighth in goals allowed (2.68), while Ottawa finds themselves 20th and 13th in those respective categories. It’s safe to say this is a bit of a mismatch on both sides of the puck.

Just when it appeared Tampa Bay was set for a down year following last season’s first round loss to the cross-state rival Panthers and departure of long time captain Steven Stamkos, they’ve seemed to find their game in the second half of the season, and even made a couple depth acquisitions at the deadline (Oliver Bjorkstrand/Yanni Gourde) to prepare for yet another Stanley Cup run.

Tampa’s top-six is up there with the league’s best. Newcomer Jake Guentzel has seemingly been a perfect fit, Nikita Kucherov has added yet another 100-point season to his resume, and Brayden Point continues to be one of the game’s most dangerous playmakers as he approaches the end of his 20s. Guys like Anthony Cirelli and Nick Paul seem to have a knack for scoring big time goals, and let’s not forget about Brandon Hagel, who quietly has 33 goals on the season. It’s safe to say Tampa’s high-powered offence would be a problem for Ottawa’s relatively inexperienced D core.

Now, this matchup would only occur if Tampa Bay wins the Atlantic Division, and while they are neck and neck with the Panthers and Maple Leafs, it’s unclear how hard Jon Cooper will push his veteran group with a month left in the regular season. The two-time Cup-winning coach may value rest and recovery for his squad, and this could involve giving vets like Victor Hedman, and Ryan McDonough a lighter workload in preparing for the postseason.

From a Sens’ perspective, avoiding Tampa would be ideal. They’re so well-balanced, and it’s unclear if Ottawa’s big boys could produce at their regular pace in a tight-checking series against a team that’s won two of the last five Stanley Cups. Brady Tkachuk registered just one point in three games against Tampa Bay this season, and the Lightning outscored Ottawa 13-9 in the season series. While the Lightning haven’t had the recent success of the Panthers, they’re just as deep, and this would be an equally challenging matchup for the Senators, which would most likely result in a short postseason run.

2. Washington Capitals: 2-0-1 Against Ottawa This Season

As crazy as it sounds, the Sens would have a very good chance against the top team in the East. In three matchups this season, each game went beyond regulation, and the goal total was almost even at 10-9 for Washington. These tightly contested matchups had a playoff feel to them in terms of physicality, and seeing this matchup play out for potentially seven games would bring more of the same nail-biting action.

Dealing with the freight train that is Tom Wilson would be tough for the inexperienced Sens, but you have to think Brady would be willing and ready to throw his weight around just as much as the fellow heavy hitter in Wilson. Washington opted to retool this offseason instead of the traditional rebuild route, and it has paid major dividends. Additions like Dylan Strome, Pierre Luc-Dubois, Logan Thompson, and former Senator Jakob Chychrun have all exceeded expectations this season and provided first year head coach Spencer Carbery with depth and stability throughout the lineup.

But the biggest story of the season for the East’s top team has been Alex Ovechkin and his pursuit of the all-time goal record. The Great Eight has 38 career goals against the Sens and would need to be kept in check for Ottawa to have success.

While the biggest red flag for the Senators heading into the playoffs is their lack of experience, the same could be said for the Capitals. This roster is very different from the Cup-winning squad in 2018, and with a new head coach it’s not a forgone conclusion Washington will be able to replicate their regular season success in the postseason.

While the Sens have had a bumpier road to the playoffs, this has allowed them to play with a sense of urgency and fight for wins more often than the Capitals who have mostly cruised this season. Of the four potential matchups, the Caps may give the Sens the best chance to advance, but it all depends on whose depth and goaltending shine when it matters most. If the Sens fall to the second wild card spot, it may be a blessing in disguise, as they could easily give the Capitals a first round scare and even pull off the upset.

1. Toronto Maple Leafs: 0-3-0 Against Ottawa This Season

This matchup screams ‘nothing to lose and everything to gain’ for the Senators. It is literally the opposite for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Ottawa swept the season series and has won five straight against their provincial rival, and facing a young and inexperienced team in the first round could be Toronto’s worst nightmare.

Toronto’s core-four appears to be on its last legs with both Mitch Marner and John Tavares heading for free agency this summer, and the Sens have the perfect opportunity to send possibly their biggest rival into a tailspin if they fall short in the playoffs once again. Roster wise, Toronto’s clearly the more talented team, but playoff series aren’t won on paper.

Toronto has a tendency to play down to its competition and beat themselves with simple mistakes. These characteristics are exactly what Ottawa should want in an opponent.

The Sens outscored Toronto 9-3 this season, with Auston Matthews and William Nylander being the only Maple Leafs’ stars to score against Ullmark. Everything displayed this season has leaned in favour of the Senators, and if Toronto take the Atlantic Division crown, they could be in for a Round 1 wake-up call. With playoff losses to the Montreal Canadiens and Columbus Blue Jackets, the Maple Leafs’ core has been upset in Round 1 before, and it’s never a guarantee they’ll show up when it matters most.

Some factors in Toronto’s behaviour could be their depth on defence, upgraded goaltending, and passionate fans who will make the four-hour drive to Canadian Tire Centre and potentially outnumber Sens supporters when the series flips to Ottawa. It’s been over 20 years since the last Battle of Ontario in the playoffs, and while Toronto should take this matchup pretty easily, the mental strain and pressure of past playoff failures definitely level the playing field. Ottawa doesn’t fear Toronto, and should be licking their chops if they find themselves matched up with the Maple Leafs when the playoffs begin in a few weeks.

Final Thoughts

Regardless of Ottawa’s Round 1 opponent, the way they’ve upped their game since the trade deadline has given them a fighter’s chance in any matchup. While the Sens would hope to avoid the Cup-champion Panthers in their first playoff series in eight years, it doesn’t mean they’d back down from a fight in Sunrise. With what Brady Tkachuk showed the hockey world in February with Team USA, you get the sense he’s built for the playoff stage. The key to Ottawa potentially advancing will be if those around him can show up when it matters.