For a third straight year, the Dallas Stars have been eliminated in the Western Conference Final. This time, the Stars fell to the Edmonton Oilers. Now the Stars attempt to figure out how to get back to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 2020. We look at the dream scenario for Dallas in the 2025 NHL Free Agency period.
Dallas has been a team that has reloaded rather than rebuilt in recent years. They have missed the playoffs just once since 2019, and have been to four conference finals plus one Stanley Cup Final in that time. Still, they face a difficult offseason if they wish to continue to contend in the West. The Stars have just $4.5 million in cap space this offseason, according to Cap Wages. Further, they have multiple free agents to re-sign. The Stars have seven unrestricted free agents, with one restricted free agent.
Among those who are unrestricted are Jamie Benn, Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund, and Evgenii Dadonov. They also have plenty of needs. The Stars not only need to keep their core together, but also need to improve on a power play that was 17th in the NHL this past year. The Stars also need to do all of this while managing a small amount of cap space.
Granlund was a trade deadline acquisition for the Stars this past year. He made an impact for them immediately. He spent time on both of the top two lines and worked mainly with Roope Hintz and Mikko Rantanen on the first line in the playoffs. The winger scored seven goals and 14 assists in 31 regular-season games with the Stars this past campaign. It was the third time in four years he scored over 60 points in a season. He also improves the power play, having five goals and 14 assists on the power play last season. What made him so valuable for the Stars was this postseason. He had five goals and five assists with three goals and three assists on the power play in the postseason. All of those were career highs.
Bringing back Granlund may be difficult for the Stars, but it is in the realm of the realistic. He is projected to need just under $5 million AAV on a two-year contract. While Dallas does not have a full $5 million in cap space, there is a small enough difference between his needs and the salary cap that the Stars could use deferrals to make it happen. Typically, NHL deferrals do not significantly impact the salary cap, but this would be a situation where one could be beneficial. Also, advanced statistics show that this is not a player on the decline. He had more high-danger scoring chances and a higher expected goals number than in prior years. With how Granlund paired with that top line in the playoffs, it would be a dream to bring him back.
It is clear the Stars have salary cap constraints this offseason. First, Wyatt Johnston, Jake Oettinger, and Rantanen all have large extensions going into effect this year. Further, they have high-salary-cap players such as Tyler Seguin and Hintz. To help keep this core together for another run, the Stars will need someone to take a team-friendly deal. One option is Jamie Benn. Benn was drafted with the 129th overall pick in the 2007 NHL Draft. He would join the Stars in the 2009-10 season, and has been with them ever since.
Benn is second in all-time games played for the Stars, second in career goals, third in career assists, and second in career points. Benn has also made it clear he wants to stay in Dallas this offseason. The 35-year-old has been the captain of the team since 2013, and would have to be selfless here to make it happen. To start with, while Benn played in 80 games, his production declined. He is coming off his least productive season since the shortened 2020-21 season. Secondly, he is projected to be worth $4.8 million AAV. With Granlund needing a similar amount, and Benn being less productive and older, he will need to take a pay cut to stay.
Meanwhile, Matt Duchene is another option for players willing to take a discount. The need for Duchene to stay with the Stars is greater than that of keeping Benn from a strictly statistical standpoint, and not considering the fact that Benn is an all-time franchise great. Duchene led the team with 82 points this past year, and also led the team with 52 assists. He was one of three players to score 30 or more goals, while he also contributed heavily on the power play. Duchene has also shown a willingness to stay in Dallas. Last offseason, he signed a one-year, $3 million deal. He is in line for a big pay increase this offseason, but the Stars’ dream situation would have him taking a sweetheart deal one more time.
The biggest stretch of a dream could be right here. The Stars need powerplay help. While the powerplay did improve with Granlund and Rantanen on the roster, it was still not an elite unit. Gabriel Vilardi is a restricted free agent this offseason. He is coming off his best season in the NHL. He scored a career high of 27 goals while also adding a career high of 34 assists. His 61 points would have placed him fourth on the Stars this year, and he could slide into the second line for the Stars next season. Further, he scored 12 times on the power play with 13 assists. His powerplay goal total would have led the Stars, while his 25 power play points would have tied the team lead.
Vilardi would not come cheap. He is expected to bring in over $6.5 million per year in his next contract. Further, as a restricted free agent, he would require draft pick compensation. At that salary, the Stars do not have enough draft pick compensation to make an offer sheet work. This would then require a sign and trade with the Winnipeg Jets. While the Stars could theoretically dump some salary here to bring in Vilardi, the Jets are also a contending team in the West, making this a stretch of a dream.
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