The degrees of Maple Leafs trade deadline untouchable-ness

No player is completely untouchable. We’ll start by acknowledging that. While untouchable players at the trade deadline will be discussed in this, it’s entirely possible that a rival GM could go on a Fear and Loathing style ether binge and offer 20 Connor McDavid clones for the entire Maple Leafs depth chart. It’s unlikely, but as someone who has consumed far too much Marvel Multiverse content in the past few years, I guess you can’t exclude any possibility.

That said, there are plenty of players who are very close to that untouchable level on the Maple Leafs and others who have a very high degree of not being dealt at the trade deadline. For a competitive team like the Leafs, there are a good number of players who fall into different tiers of untouchable-ness.

Here’s that breakdown:

The Auston Matthews tier

Outside of Connor McDavid hypotheticals, it seems pretty unlikely that Auston Matthews is going anywhere anytime soon. I’m not sure much more needs to be said about Auston. He’s alone in his status.

The too-perfect-a-fit tier

This is the group that, through a combination of their talent, performance this season, and their cap hit, will be pretty much as unlikely as Matthews to be departing. These guys can turn their phones off and take a nap on deadline day.

Anthony Stolarz, Joseph Woll, Chris Tanev, Jake McCabe, Matthew Knies

Someone might make an offer too good to pass up

There are two ends of the spectrum here, and they have hypotheticals attached to them, so we’ll look at each player separately.

William Nylander is a premier puck carrier in this league and has shown an ability to distribute as well as shoot and has become quite comfortable in aggressively driving the net. The Maple Leafs absolutely need a player like William Nylander, but if the opportunity for acquiring a first-line calibre centre for him was available, I’d imagine Brad Treliving wouldn’t hang up immediately. The hypothetical move I’d have in mind for a Nylander move to become possible is a deal for Elias Pettersson.

The other player I’d put in this category is Easton Cowan. He’s really the only prospect I’d consider remotely untouchable as he can take a serious run at a top-nine forward job next season, and his record-setting OHL point streak certainly lends itself to excitement about his upside.

Of course, prospect upside requires patience; the window is now, and there is always a good chance that some potential will go unfulfilled. If Cowan gets valued beyond a first-round pick, he isn’t completely safe, even if it is most likely that he will still be part of the Leafs’ organization on March 8th.

Their free agent status increases the possibility slightly

Unsigned pending UFAs are always a sticky point. You don’t want to lose talented players for nothing (gaining their cap space isn’t nothing, by the way) and if things are more sour than expected and someone comes knocking on Brad Treliving’s door with a Mikko Rantanen type offer that allows for the Leafs to get good players but mitigate the risk of free agency, I guess it’s possible that these players could move, but it’s pretty unlikely.

Mitch Marner, John Tavares

Likely staying put but untouchable seems like a stretch

I’d imagine the Leafs would have conversations on these players, and they aren’t untouchable, but it would be shocking to see these players on a team other than the Leafs post-deadline.

Morgan Rielly hasn’t been great this season. It could be because good players have off years, it could be he’s not a fit with Craig Berube, or it could be new Dad exhaustion. I don’t know Morgan Rielly’s situation, but it has resulted in some opinions about a change of scenery, at least by those outside the organization.

The reality is that a no-movement clause and Rielly’s status in the locker room likely mean the boat isn’t going to be rocked in season and likely at all. It is far more likely that the Leafs will make a move that benefits Rielly than trying to cut him loose.

Bobby McMann is a goal-scoring bargain. While it seems that Craig Berube isn’t as keen on utilizing McMann as some of his other forwards, the goals per dollar rate is irreplaceable and McMann isn’t going anywhere unless it involves an overpayment.

Max Pacioretty and Steven Lorentz are low-cost assets that have worked out well for the Leafs (when Pacioretty is healthy). It seems too difficult to replace them without overspending.

The field

Without going into the rest of who would be available on the Leafs, it seems worth pointing out that Ben Danford, Fraser Minten, Nikita Grebenkin, and other top prospects are likely in play because they pretty much have to be. If the Leafs are looking at serious upgrades and wanting to have that upgraded player show up with term potentially, they’ll have to give up worthwhile assets.

All draft picks would have to be in play as well.

The rest of the Leafs’ players and prospects probably don’t require the arm-twisting about dealing them as those listed above. Even Hildeby and Akhtyamov are a bit of a redundancy that makes potentially giving up a goaltending prospect something that can be accepted if the current Leafs roster notably improves.

The large number of untouchables or near untouchables, coupled with the shallow prospect pool and lack of a 2025 1st round pick, certainly ups the difficulty for Brad Treliving, but it also points to why the time for the Leafs is now. They do have a good portion of their lineup that they are very happy with, they are playing well, and the age of the players dictates making bigger short-term moves. The next week should be an interesting one.