Which Ottawa Senators are Leaf killers?

It’s the Battle of Ontario. Or a potential seven-game homestand for the Maple Leafs. Or it’s the Leafs finally winning the Atlantic Division only to face a team that swept them in the regular season. How ever you want to look at it, the Leafs and Senators is about as exciting as it gets for a first round matchup and one that was previously noted for having Brandon Carlo as the only Leaf with multiple points against Ottawa this year and the Senators being a team that both Leaf goalies looked strong against.

Now it’s time to take a look at the Senators side of things and see who has been productive when facing Toronto this season as well as over their career.

The first thing that pops out from looking at this list is that no one is truly a “Leaf killer” on this list. Stutzle and Giroux both this season and over their careers are point per game guys against the Leafs but are pretty manageable opponents.

The Leafs have done a solid job of keeping Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson off the scoresheet in their matchups this season and even their career numbers against the Leafs don’t show them as significant threats.

The Senators switch from Josh Norris to Dylan Cozens looks like a preferred outcome for the Leafs, not that Norris was a huge offensive threat against the Leafs but he was significantly better than how Cozens has fared against them (Cozens on the Senators vs. the Leafs of course still being a relative unknown.)

Before getting into goaltending, the biggest barrier will likely be defence for the Maple Leafs. Sanderson is very good at what he does. Both Chabot and Zub have been strong against the Leafs as well, and Travis Hamonic is the type of defenceman that typically has made life hellish for Leafs forwards that are reluctant to use force to claim their space in front of the net.

Throughout the season Sanderson and Zub saw the most time against Matthews and Marner while Chabot and Hamonic were matched against Nylander. It’s unlikely that plan is going to change.

Nick Jensen hasn’t seen much time against the Leafs in a Senators uniform and the Senators sixth defenceman options make it appear that going with talent over toughness in the Leafs bottom six might produce some favourable matchups where secondary scoring will get some opportunities.

Senators goaltending/defensive play has shut down the Leafs nicely this year. Three goals over three games shows that they know what they are doing but with the Leafs putting in some prep work and adjusting their game to be ready, it seems like unlikely that this outright dominance will continue.

Over their careers both Ullmark and Forsberg (not that he’ll play) have been notably average against the Leafs and that is something that Toronto will want to tap into. And while Ullmark did okay in his one career playoff game against the Leafs last season with the Bruins, he ended up losing the game allowing three goals on 31 shots.

Despite the Senators winning all three games against the Leafs this season and going three out of four against the Leafs last year, this is the best matchup the Leafs could hope for. The Maple Leafs history of underestimating teams at the bottom of their division factors into the results as does the fact that facing the Leafs has been a big deal for the Senators in their down years while the Leafs would not have put the same prep time into these matchups.

You take underestimating the Senators out of the equation and the potential for Ullmark’s results to regress, the Leafs have a favourable first round matchup.

Data from Hockey Reference and Natural Stat Trick