Euro 2024 best bets: Georgia's date with destiny

Portugal carries one of the strongest, deepest squads at these Euros and is considered one of the tournament's few favorites. It went undefeated in its qualification campaign and fields a mixture of legends (Porto's Pepe, Al-Nassr's Cristiano Ronaldo), prime athletes (Man City's Bernardo Silva, Liverpool's Diogo Jota) and new faces (PSG's Goncalo Ramos, Benfica's Joao Neves.) It won this tournament unexpectedly in 2016 and will be hungry to win it again.

The Czech Republic can be great — it went all the way to the quarterfinals in 2021 on the back of strong performances from Bayer Leverkusen's Patrik Schick — but has struggled recently thanks to off-field drama. Coach Jaroslav Silhavy left the team after qualifying it for the Euros and his replacement Ivan Hasek isn't nearly as strong. The Czechs are not expected to advance from this group but could return to their 2021 form under the tournament's spotlight.

Where are the best bets hiding in these two matches? Here's what we're looking out for:

Georgia's debut. Turkey is the clear favorite in its matchup with debutant Georgia, and the odds agree: it's at -150 to pull off a win. But it's been struggling with form recently and enters these Euros with the worst record of anyone: it hasn't won a competitive fixture since it defeated Germany unexpectedly last November. Since then, everyone from Wales to Austria to Poland to Hungary has managed to pull off a result against the Turks.

Given that unfortunate record — and the fervor surrounding Georgia's debut — we're backing the Georgians to win or draw at +115 instead. Romantics might also want to consider a straight Georgia win at +400.

The resurrection of Bruno Fernandes. Poor Fernandes: the Portuguese midfielder spent most of the 2023-24 season trying, and failing, to psych up Manchester United's exhausted first team. Most of us think of Fernandes as a perpetually disappointed and aggrieved presence for that reason. But with the help of his stellar Portugal teammates Fernandes becomes an entirely different player — one who passes the ball forward with intent and joy. He had a strong qualification record with Portugal; we're backing him as an anytime goalscorer against the Czechs at +200. 

Strong Portugal defense. The Czech Republic won plenty during its Euro qualification campaign, but it rarely managed to do so with a clean sheet: the only teams it held to zero goals were Moldova and the Faroe Islands. Portugal, meanwhile, left qualification with a frankly insane record: played 10, won 10, scored 36, conceded 2. Whoa.

This is one of the most mismatched fixtures of Matchday One, and as much as we'd love to see the Czechs pull off an upset, we think Portugal's rock-solid defense will keep them out. We're backing Portugal to win without conceding at +150.

Turkey takes on Georgia on June 18 at 12 p.m. ET; Portugal takes on the Czech Republic on June 18 at 3 p.m. ET. See you there!