ATP Barcelona Final Prediction – Carlos Alcaraz vs Holger Rune

Carlos Alcaraz and Holger Rune were dominant players even in their junior days and it seemed like their rivalry could define the next era of tennis. It hasn’t quite worked out like that thus far, with Rune having a very respectable career but languishing some way behind Alcaraz, and this is their first meeting in almost two years. Alcaraz, playing on home turf and fresh from his trimph in Monte Carlo, will be the heavy favourite. But who will come out on top?

ATP Barcelona Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz vs Holger Rune

Head-to-head: Alcaraz 2-1 Rune

Alcaraz hasn’t lost in Barcelona since 2021, picking up the title in 2022 and 2023, and missing the last edition with an injury. The Spaniard clinching the title in Monte Carlo last week was massive for his confidence, and it’s currently presenting itself in his game. While not without any difficult moments (Ethan Quinn had a set point on serve), he hasn’t dropped a set this week and it seems like fatigue won’t be an issue for him whatsoever.

Meanwhile, Rune might finally be trending in the right direction. The Indian Wells final against Jack Draper was a disappointingly easy defeat, but he did play some incredible matches along the way. An early retirement due to illness in Monte Carlo made his situation ahead of Barcelona a little unclear. But the 21-year-old has bounced back beautifully, especially through dominant performances against Karen Khachanov or Casper Ruud (improving his poor head-to-head record against the latter).

It would be great to witness this matchup on tour more consistently, but it won’t happen until Rune ups his game week in, week out. For now Alcaraz is the more finished product of the two and has weaponry that the rest of the tour can only wish for. The Dane’s all-round game could pose him some issues and Rune will have the tools to punish dips more efficiently than the previous opponents of the 2-time champion. But the favorite is clear, especially with his gas tank not looking like it’s about to go empty.

Prediction: Alcaraz in 3