Are Philadelphia Phillies Overhyped Heading Into 2025 MLB Season?

While Philadelphia had MLB's second-best record last year at 95-67, it has legitimate concerns heading into 2025.

For starters, the Phillies' Pythagorean record last year (a projection based on run differential) was 92-70, suggesting they were a bit lucky. They also tailed off in the second half, going 33-33 after the All-Star Break.

That slide continued in the postseason, where Philadelphia won just one game before getting knocked out of the NLDS by the New York Mets.

Despite being exposed in October, the Phillies didn't significantly improve this offseason. They're essentially bringing back the same team with a few new complementary pieces like Jesus Luzardo, Max Kepler and Jordan Romano.

They're all coming off underwhelming seasons, however, so betting on all of them to bounce back is risky (especially Kepler and Romano, who are in their 30s). So is counting on top pitching prospect Andrew Painter, who's coming off Tommy John surgery and has never pitched in the Major Leagues.

For the most part, Philadelphia's roster is another year older. That's worrisome for a team relying on so many stars in their 30s, including Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.

Meanwhile, many of their top competitors improved this winter. The Mets added Juan Soto and the Atlanta Braves will be healthier, so winning the NL East again will be difficult. PECOTA projects the Phillies to finish third with 86 wins, while FanGraphs predicts 87 wins.

The rest of the league appears more formidable as well. The Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks got better, the Dodgers continued adding and the San Diego Padres remain extremely talented. Just getting to the playoffs will be challenging, let alone making it all the way to the World Series.

Philadelphia still looks superior to any team in the American League, especially with the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles getting crushed by injuries and the Houston Astros' dynasty in decline. However, the Phillies seem closer to the fifth or sixth-best team in baseball rather than the second or third, especially given their inconsistent play during spring training.

They're relying on their aging core to remain healthy and productive, which is a dicey strategy. If some of them get hurt or start deteriorating, Philadelphia could suffer serious regression this year and fall short of expectations.