Who Will Be San Francisco’s Fifth Starter in 2025?

Kyle Harrison spring training stats as of 3/12

Just a few years ago, Harrison was labeled as the best left-handed pitching prospect in all of baseball. Everybody assumed he would develop into a frontline starter, especially after he earned the nod as the Giants’ No. 2 starter going into the 2024 season.

However, Harrison’s rookie season did not go as planned. He showed some flashes, including a couple of shutouts at Coors Field, but overall struggled with consistency and effectiveness — partly due to lingering injuries throughout the year.

Possibly the most concerning part of his 2024 campaign was the dip in velocity. Harrison had a unicorn fastball while he was rising through the minors, but it just hasn’t been the same since reaching the big leagues.

His most recent spring training outing heightened some of those concerns, in which he failed to get out of the first inning while also displaying some diminished velocity. However, he has been in the strike zone, having five strikeouts to only one walk so far this spring.

The Giants are optimistic that Harrison can rediscover his former self now that he is fully healthy in 2025. If he does, he has the potential to be in the upper echelon of left-handed starters in this league.

However, if he fails to rediscover the velocity, he may not be the lock in the rotation everybody thought he would be.

Hayden Birdsong: Can He Command His Electric Stuff?

Hayden Birdsong spring training stats as of 3/12

If we’re strictly talking about stuff, Hayden Birdsong is the most electric arm of the three. Last season, he made 16 starts for the Giants and flashed some overpowering strikeout stuff, including a 12-strikeout performance against the Rockies.

However, he also held an elevated walk rate, which showed his struggle to stay in the zone at times.

Birdsong has an impressive arsenal, highlighted by a demoralizing kick-change and a fastball that creeps into the high 90s. He also boasts a curveball and slider combination that gives him a well-rounded, above-average pitch mix.

Birdsong has gotten comparisons to a younger version of his new teammate, Justin Verlander. A tall, powerful, over-the-top right-hander is similar to what 42-year-old Verlander brought to the table in his Detroit days.

Verlander could act as a mentor, and even help elevate Birdsong’s game and mold him into a more complete pitcher.

Despite looking very solid this spring, Birdsong never necessarily seized the job last season. He’s shown a lot of promise but has not been dominant enough to the point where the job can just be given to him.

If he can hone in on his command and limit some walks, Birdsong could be a real weapon this season and grab that last spot in the rotation.

Landen Roupp: The Surprise of the Spring

Landen Roupp spring training stats as of 3/12

Leading up to spring training, many believed that the fifth starter competition would really just be between Birdsong and Harrison. Halfway through the spring, though, Landen Roupp is forcing the Giants to reconsider.

After having some good showings in limited action last season, Roupp has been one of, if not the best pitcher in camp so far.

He’s always had a nasty curveball to work with and is now increasing the use of his changeup, which has helped keep hitters guessing in Scottsdale. In his first 8.1 innings in the Cactus League, he posted a 0.00 ERA, 11 strikeouts, with only one walk and one hit allowed.

It was as dominant of a start to the spring as any young pitcher could hope for, and he is certainly making it hard for Bob Melvin and the front office to leave him off the first flight to Cincinnati in a few weeks.

Even if Roupp is not the fifth starter right off the bat, he is making a strong case to be on the big league team regardless. He could find himself in the bullpen as a long reliever to start the year until an opportunity to join the rotation is presented due to injuries or fatigue (especially with Hicks).

However, given with the way his spring has gone so far, Roupp might be forcing the organization’s hand and earn a spot in the rotation outright.

Other Names to Watch

While Harrison, Birdsong, and Roupp are the real contenders, there are a few other names worth mentioning.

Carson Whisenhunt is the organization’s top pitching prospect and has a good chance to make his big league debut this season. However, he was recently optioned to minor league camp, ending any ideas of him winning a rotation spot out of camp.

Carson Ragsdale, Carson Seymour, Mason Black, and Keaton Winn are all guys who could start games for the Giants at some point this season. While the rotation is a bit cramped to start the year, don’t be surprised if any of these names are in the big league rotation by midseason.

The Giants have a surplus of young, reliable rotation depth and will look to take advantage of that this season.

Who Wins the Job?

As things stand right now, the competition still remains tight.

Harrison has the experience and pedigree but has to regain some velocity and effectiveness. Birdsong has some of the best raw stuff that scouts dream on for a young prospect, but he needs to fill up the strike zone. Lastly, Roupp has impressed in camp and is making a real push for the last spot, but he will have to pass up the other two on the depth chart.

The Giants have a tough decision on their hands, and the final weeks leading up to Opening Day will be crucial for these three. No matter who wins the job, the battle is far from over. San Francisco’s rotation will inevitably be tested, and all three of these pitchers will get their chance to contribute at some point in 2025.